Afterwards one is always wiser 🙂
Bitcoin BTC (daily)
Bitcoin (BTC) formed a perfect negative divergence in the RSI at 29'300 on Tuesday and has since rallied under strong momentum. Despite this rally, however, bitcoin is still in a downtrend channel. Only a clear breakout above 41'000 would technically put an end to this downtrend. It seems likely that we will remain in the 36'000 and 40'000 range until the end of the week, as these form the large options expiries (red lines) in the region and act as magnets.
- Support: 30k
- Resistance: 41k
- Important opt expiry strikes: 36k, 40k, 50k
If we see prices significantly above 41'000 due to events/news before Friday, this could lead to a violent squeeze in the direction of 50'000, as technically there are no resistances and various market participants would probably also have to run after the delta from short gamma positions.
Ethereum ETH (daily)
Ethereum (ETH) is trading at the upper end of the downtrend that has been in place since May. It already attempted a breakout yesterday. The momentum of ETH is lukewarm compared to that of BTC. If this week’s rally in the market is not sustainable, ETH could fall below the 1'740 support level in the medium term.
- Support: Trendline, 1'720, 1'420
- Resistance: 2'850
- Important opt expiry strikes: 2'400, 1'600
The next support would then be 1'420. On the options side, I only see 2'400 as a possible magnet until Friday.
Ethereum/Bitcoin ETHBTC (daily)
The outperformance of bitcoin against the market can be seen in the ETHBTC chart. Over the weekend, we bounced off the falling trendline at 0.06440 and are currently trading at 0.059.
- Support: 0.0565, 0.0450
- Resistance: Trendline, 0.069
Technically, the falling trendline is hanging over ETHBTC like the sword of Damocles. Should the price sustainably fall below 0.0565, it is not unlikely that we could see prices between 0.045 and 0.049.
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