Bitcoin USD daily basis
Bitcoin USD Weekly Review: Continued consolidation in the area 30'000 USD
The reporting week was characterized by a continued consolidation in the 30'000 range and thus with a slightly friendlier trend than in the previous week. Monday began as already often observed with a price movement that exceeded the average of the daily measured volatility. For once, a price increase provided a decent green candle, something that was rarely registered in the past. A remarkable gain of 7.67% brought the Bitcoin price to the level of USD 31'739 at the end of the day. Close to the 32'000 resistance zone, the market ended the trading session at USD 31'785 on Tuesday with the price almost unchanged. At mid-week, this raised the question of whether the almost one-month consolidation phase in the area of USD 28'000 - 30'000 can be given a new direction of travel with the break of the 32'000 resistance. The question was answered as a clear no with a daily close at USD 29'540. The market is still in a stalemate of any bottoming since the rapid descent from the all-time high area around USD 69'000. Accordingly, the following four trading days of the reporting week were undecided: it was traded in narrow ranges in the area of USD 30'000, which corresponded to a virtually unchanged weekly close compared to the previous week.
First signs of trend reversal negated
Daily Interval Review
After the mid-March 2020 price plunge, a veritable countermovement established itself. This led to the resistance zones above USD 10'000. After an initial rejection and a consolidation phase of almost two months, a breakthrough through the fundamental resistance zone followed on July 27, 2020, which persisted since August 2019 and accordingly caused Bitcoin to fail several times already.
The area around USD 10'000, which served as resistance, was interesting in several respects. On the one hand, the 0.618 Fibonacci point of the entire downward movement, which was initiated at the end of June 2019 just below USD 14'000, was located in this price area. On the other hand, the zone around USD 10'000 simultaneously acted as a witness of the still bearish trend from lower highs since December 2017 (see macro view on weekly basis). Bitcoin was able to establish itself above the newly created support in the USD 10'000 area since the end of July 2020 and provided the first confirmation of a trend reversal of the bear market that had persisted since 2018 with the break of the resistance zone around USD 12'200 towards the end of October 2020. In the following weeks, the positive trend accentuated and led Bitcoin through the 14'000 resistance in early November 2020 and close to the then all-time highs around USD 20'000 for the first time in early December, which remained untouched for 158 weeks since the bull market in 2017.
With the breakthrough of the old all-time high at USD 20'000, the trend reversal was definitely heralded. Accordingly, there was a strong accentuation of the uptrend, which brought the Bitcoin price to its new all-time high just below USD 65'000 in just over 4 months. However, the rapid upward movement was abruptly halted in mid-May 2020, taking Bitcoin back to the USD 30'000 areas. After a three-month consolidation phase, the upward movement was continued no less spectacularly after a "rounding bottom" in the 0.61 Fibonacci area, which finally ended with a new all-time high at USD 69'000 in October 2020 after a "retest" of the 40'000 zone. Since then, a strong correction phase dominated once again, which led the Bitcoin price back to the USD 34'000 area and thus to trend-determining price territories. However, a bottom formation lasting more than 70 days, marked by higher lows, led Bitcoin above the stubborn 45'000 resistance.
Outlook Daily Interval
Just 73 days after reaching an all-time high at USD 69'000, the break of the 40'000 support zone at the end of the previous month suggests a change of course. The bull run, which has lasted over 401 days, seems to be running out of steam. The further direction of travel could accordingly turn out to be a longer sideways movement with a negative tendency.
After the short-term capitulation event to the 25'000 area three weeks ago, a temporary stabilization in the 29'000 - 30'000 USD area set in. The reporting week was characterized by slightly higher levels compared to the previous week. A first march stop of the lush correction since the all-time high, but still nothing that can hide the current critical technical picture. The current level is considered the last line of defense of the bulls and should provide information about the macro situation, because the current price area already served as support in January as well as in June 2021.
Holding this price area suggests an initial sideways movement in the corridor USD 28'000 - 38'000, while a continued break suggests a visit to the area around the old all-time high at USD 20'000 as likely.
New price discovery phase shows weakness
Review Weekly Interval
Bitcoin was able to set a higher high above USD 10'000 for the first time in the weekly interval in 2020, which broke the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. This broke the series of lower highs that lasted for 135 weeks (1).
Since this first overcoming of the bearish trend, the signs for a valid trend reversal became stronger. With the push through important resistance zones and a continuous development above the 21-week average (2), the probabilities for a renewed reaching of the all-time high created in 2017/18 increased visibly. This scenario was completed in mid-December 2020. This was followed by a strongly accentuated price discovery above this historical zone, which produced a new all-time high of USD 65'000 in mid-April. A consolidation initiated since then ended in a veritable price slide that brought Bitcoin back to the USD 30'000 mark in just two weeks, even below the 21-week average (2) that has defined reliable bull or bear market phases in the past.
However, a subsequent breakout from the 10-week USD 30'000 - 40'000 consolidation area and a subsequent successful "retest" of the upper range of this channel most recently took Bitcoin above the all-time high created in April in an impressive counter-movement. After the creation of the new all-time high in the USD 69'000 area in November 2021, a vehement correction phase set in again, analogous to the pattern observed in May. This initially led to the break of the 50'000 support zone, which then promptly caused a bounce in this area, which now acts as resistance. Since then, a trend of accentuating lower weekly highs and lows has been observed, which is bringing Bitcoin back into the USD 30'000 zone.
Outlook weekly interval
The massive bull phase, which has lasted since July 2021 and originated from the healthy 0.618 Fibonacci area, which has been calculated since the start of the bull market and the all-time high of April, has recently been put to the test. The undershooting of the 40'000 area makes a rapid continued price discovery beyond the 69'000 all-time high a distant prospect for now. The market is setting a slower pace with the risk of falling into a bear market.
The series of higher lows and highs since October 2020 was not able to be continued, resulting in a short-term visit to the area above USD 25'000. A sustained move above USD 28'000 would suggest a low similar to mid-2021 price action and open up a robust sideways range in the USD 30'000 - USD 60'000 corridor.
Bitcoin's recent rally has failed to continue higher weekly lows. The current price action in the USD 30'000 area is a test of the last major support area. This is likely to be where the ultimate battle between bulls and bears will take place, as this is the 0.618 Fibonacci zone, which has been calculated since the beginning of the bull market and the all-time high. A sustained move below this area would also undercut the July 2021 price area, which would be close to a bear market confirmation.
Disclaimer
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