Weekly Bitcoin USD chart analysis calendar week 44 – 2021

Bitcoin USD daily basis

Bitcoin USD Chart Analysis - Consolidation Above the 60,000 Area

Bitcoin used the reporting week for a continued consolidation after the rapid upward movement of the previous weeks. Since the correction from the new all-time high at around 67,000 USD, a bottoming pattern has been forming in the range between 60,000 and 63,500 USD. In the reporting week, this pattern was continued. On Monday, the market showed its indecision in the area of 61,000 USD with a "Long Legged Doji". On Tuesday, a valid upward movement occurred, which allowed the Bitcoin price to close the day back at 63,266 USD. Already 8 days ago, this price area served as resistance. And this time, too, sales that began on Wednesday during the course of the day led back up to the 60,000 zones, but at the close of trading at 62,911 USD, a price just below the level of the previous day came about. On Thursday, the market again went lower out of trading at USD 61,418. At the end of the week, two trading sessions followed on Friday and Saturday, characterized by low trading ranges in the area of 61,500 USD. On Sunday, the market heeded the pattern of the previous days and moved back to the upper range of the last observed trading range at just over USD 63,000.

Incipient consolidation after new all-time high

Review daily interval

After the price drop in mid-March 2020, a veritable countermovement established itself. This led to the resistance zones above USD 10,000. After an initial rejection and a consolidation phase lasting almost two months, a breakout through the fundamental resistance zone followed on July 27, which had been established since August 2019 and had already caused Bitcoin to fail several times to date.

The resistance zone around USD 10,000 was interesting in several respects. On the one hand, the 0.618 Fibonacci point of the entire downward movement, which was initiated at the end of June 2019 just below 14,000 USD, is located here. On the other hand, the zone around USD 10,000 simultaneously acted as a confirmation of the still bearish trend from lower highs since December 2017 (see the macro view on a weekly basis). Bitcoin was able to establish itself above the newly created support in the USD 10,000 area since the end of July 2020 and provided the first confirmation of a trend reversal with the break of the resistance zone around USD 12,200 towards the end of October 2020. In the following weeks, the positive trend accentuated and led Bitcoin through the 14,000 resistance in early November 2020 and close to the then all-time highs around 20,000 USD for the first time in early December, which remained untouched for 158 weeks since the bull market in 2017.

Since the breakout through the important 14,000 resistance at the beginning of November, it has been blowing by blow. The breakout through the old all-time high at USD 20,000 saw a strong accentuation of the uptrend, which saw the Bitcoin price mark it's new all-time high just below USD 65,000 on April 14. However, the rapid upward movement was abruptly stopped in mid-May and led back to the 30,000 USD areas. Subsequently, the price consolidated in the USD 30,000 - 40,000 corridor for three months until breaking out of the upper range of the corridor at the end of July. The subsequent countermovement led to the historical resistance in the area of 52,000 USD. After an initial failure, Bitcoin was able to overcome the resistance zone on October 6 and most recently recorded highs above the old all-time high from mid-April for the first time.

Outlook Daily Interval

A rounding bottom scenario in the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci point, which is calculated between the start of the rapid uptrend and the old all-time high from mid-April, has manifested itself in a strong upward movement. This finally led to the reporting week above the all-time high of mid-April. Since the formation of a bottom in the 0.618 Fibonacci area, such a scenario moved more and more into the realm of potential possibilities. This situation was recently strengthened with the successful retest of the 40,000 zones at the end of September and the subsequent impressive countermovement. At the latest after overcoming the 52,000 resistance level, it was clear that the market was serious about its mission to reach an all-time high.

In the reporting week, the market continued to consolidate after the newly reached all-time high at just over USD 67,000. The bullish structure, consolidated by the recapture of the old all-time high in the area of USD 65,000, which lasted over 189 days, is unbroken. On its way, the price action first negated a threatening "Head and Shoulder" formation and finally a possible constellation of a classic bull trap. The ingredients are right for a continued price discovery beyond the new all-time high at 67,000 USD. For a good 10 days, a price trend with higher daily lows has been recorded, which suggests a rapid continuation of the upward movement. Should this not succeed, for the time being, the levels of 58,000 and 52,000 USD, where the 50-day average is now also moving, serve as good support zones.

New all-time high still has to prove itself

Weekly Interval Review

Bitcoin was able to set a higher high above USD 10,000 for the first time in the weekly interval in 2020, which broke the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. This broke the series of lower highs that lasted for 135 weeks (1).

Since this first overcoming of the bearish trend, the signs for a valid trend reversal became stronger. With the push through important resistance zones and a continuous development above the 21-week average (2), the probabilities for a renewed reaching of the all-time high created in 2017/18 increased visibly. This was accomplished in mid-December 2020. This was followed by a strongly accentuated price discovery above this historical mark, which produced a new all-time high of USD 65,000 in mid-April. A consolidation initiated since then ended in a veritable price slide that took Bitcoin back to the USD 30,000 mark in just two weeks. A subsequent breakout from the 10-week consolidation area of 30,000 - 40,000 USD and a subsequent successful retest of the upper range at 40,000 USD brings Bitcoin in an impressive countermovement last above the all-time high created in April.

Outlook weekly interval

With the price movements in the past year, a good foundation was created to sustainably climb new spheres beyond the all-time highs reached in 2017. The break of the USD 20,000 mark impressively demonstrated the power of the upward movement that had been establishing itself since October. The rapid price increase was abruptly interrupted in mid-April with a price drop that even brought Bitcoin below the 21-week average (2) that has defined reliable bull or bear market phases in the past.

Bitcoin was able to overcome the subsequent correction phase in the USD 30,000 - 40,000 zone after 3 months. This consolidation also took place in the interesting 0.618 Fibonacci area, which has been calculated since the start of the bull market and the all-time high of April. The breakout from the upper price band of the three-month corridor was another sign that the bulls had not yet given up the sceptre. The onset of the countermovement, which led back to the 52,000 resistance, negated a forming shoulder-head-shoulder formation and once again underscored the claim for a continued bull phase.

The justification for a price discovery beyond the all-time high was consolidated by the price movements of the last weeks. A "retest" of the 40,000 zones, which from then on served as support and where the 21-week average sometimes also runs, was successfully completed at the end of September. The bullish momentum was crowned in recent weeks with the break of the 52,000 resistance zone.  Although a weekly close above the old all-time high has been missing so far, the claim for price action in the area above USD 65,000 was impressively underlined. With a price action above the 60,000 area, the cards are good for an early visit to the price area beyond the all-time high. As an indicator of the further price trend, the weekly RSI index remains to be observed for the time being (3), which so far shows a negative divergence to the price trend. An incipient correction should come to an end in the USD 50,000 area at the latest in order to continue to give a sustainable price discovery scenario above USD 65,000 good chances.