Good Morning!
The zig-zag price movements are continuing.
BTC$ (4 hours)
The signs of a weakening trend have materialised into pressure to the downside. In two waves we touched the 8.9k support level we mentioned last week.
With this move we have turned on the Ichimoku cloud from bullish to bearish and current price level is just right at the lower band of the cloud. I have to admit, the cloud is thin which indicates that the price can flip-flop around current levels which will make the bull/bear sentiment to jump around (green / red cloud).
In my opinion we are at a very delicate situation. When I zoom out to the weekly chart we are right at the cross roads to either break out of this multi year triangle or a fake break out with the consequence to plunge right back into the middle of the triangle.
From a technical analysis text book point of view a break out which rallies up from the middle of the triangle is the cleaner setup compared to what we have at the moment. The base line (blue line) which comes in at 8.9k on the weekly chart is key to watch.
On the topside I believe the longer it take the less important the triangle formation will be. But the 10.5k grows in importance.
ETH$ (daily)
The consolidation took a setback and we almost reached the support level at $215. The trend is still bullish with the price far away from the cloud and even the base line is has not been touched yet.
Switching to the 4h chart we see a different picture. Two warning signs of a trend reversal have been triggered. We are through the base line which currently acts as a resistance level and we briefly dipped through the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud.
The cloud band starts to narrow and if we stay at around current price levels it will turn bearish. To me it makes sense to scale down any long positions or even go flat. If we break lower through the $215 level a short setup makes sense. On the top side I need to see a proper take out of the recent high at $250.
ETH/BTC (daily)
We failed numerous times to take out the resistance level of 0.02530. This resulted in a deeper correction down to 0.02430. I am very uncertain which way the price will heading. We are right in the middle of two large liquidity pools (0.02250 and 0.02530) with no clear indications on the chart which way is the path with the least resistance.
Zooming into the 4h chart we show some signs of weakness. The break into the cloud accompanied with crossing the base line is marking the start.
I am not getting to excited though as the Ichimoku cloud is still very bullish and wide. Plus the price has not even touched the lower band of the cloud. I call it neutral ground and do not see any reason to have a position either side.
ALT$ FTX index (daily)
We have seen a nice correction since the March selloff which seems to lose some steam now.
$605 looks like a good resistance level. The Ichimoku cloud is still bearish and the price is currently just hoovering around the base line and close to the lower band of the cloud.
We saw recently some strong reaction at the $475 level. My take is if we break it to the downside we are heading to the lows in the region of $300. Topside resistance to watch is $605.
MID$ FTX index (daily)
A more bullish picture shows the MID$ index. $550 needs to hold and we have a chance to go back up to the ATH.
SHIT$ FTX index (daily)
A stellar performance since the March selloff. We almost made a new ATH. On a short term note $840 needs to hold so the uptrend can resume.
But to get a more sustainable and healthy trend it would be good to see a bigger correction which could go as deep as $660.
But for the time being the Ichimoku cloud is bullish and the price is far away from the cloud or the base line.
Market Commentary
