Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG
Another dull week in BTC, but we did see some action in various altcoins.
BTC$ (daily) technical analysis
Things are getting closer and closer in the daily BTC chart. With implied and realised vol at a multi-month low, this market is ready for a really big move. On the topside, we have the long-term trendline coming from the 2017 ATH and the June 2019 interim high, currently at around $9,800, as well as the very important horizontal resistance at $10,500.
There is support from the upper band of the Ichimoku Cloud, currently at $9,100, and the support zone between $8,600-$8,800. Given the energy that is building up in that market, even a test of the lower leadline at $7,200 is on the table.
Drilling down into the BTC$ 4h chart doesn’t give us much more information:
However, two things stand out: since the beginning of June, there has been a series of lower highs and a handful of wicks, showing that all drops towards the support zone are massively bought.
Compared to last week, the picture has not changed for ETH$. It is hovering just below the downward-sloping trendline and the horizontal resistance at $250, which is still in place. Support comes in at the upper band of the Ichimoku Cloud at $225 and then, of course, there is the major support at $215.
While BTC and major altcoins haven’t moved much over the past few weeks, the music has been playing for various small and mid-cap coins, which is mainly being driven by the DeFi hype. Let’s have a quick look at the three altcoin indices versus BTC.
Major altcoins had a very good run at the start of the year but lost all gains by mid-May. Since then, not much has been happening, and price is only smallish above the important support zone around the 55 level.
Until mid-May, the Mid-Cap Index was showing the same picture as the Alt Index. But then, the DeFi story picked up massively, which caused the Mid-Index to outperform BTC by more than 50% within two months. It’s too early to say, but with yesterday's new intraday high and the negative closing, a top might have been set.
The Shit Index is even more impressive. It already outperformed the Alt and Mid Indices into May and managed to reach new highs in the two-month rally, outperforming BTC by a whopping 57%. Similar to the Mid Index, a mid-term top might be in the cards and a consolidation down to the 93-100 area is to be expected.
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