Bitcoin/USD daily basis
Bitcoin USD - Another excursion over 10'000 USD
Right at the beginning of the reporting week, Bitcoin broke through the USD 10'000 mark again on Monday. This brought the share price up to USD 10,500 and to a daily closing at USD 10,200. The following day, however, the sustainability of the breakthrough was already tested and a wave of selling took place, reaching a daily low of USD 9,200. The day ended with a slightly higher price of a good USD 9,500. This was followed by four trading days with smaller trading ranges, all of which took place in the USD 9,300 - USD 9,700 zone.
Advancing to well-known resistances in micro and macro trends
A veritable countermovement established itself after the price slump of mid-March. This led up to the resistance zones around USD 10,000 (red). This was followed by a first rejection, which brought the price back to the 200-day average (1), just over USD 8,000. In the meantime, further attempts to climb to the area beyond the USD 10,000 level have failed. Ignoring the intraday outliers of 10 and 11 May, Bitcoin has been trading within the USD 8,500 - USD 10,000 zone for a good month. A tendency towards higher lows is discernible here. Due to the historical significance of the resistance zone, a major movement can be expected in the near future.
The resistance zone around USD 10,000 is interesting in several respects. On the one hand, the 0.618 Fibonacci point (2) of the entire downward movement, which was heralded at the end of June 2019 just below USD 14,000, is located here. On the other hand, the zone around USD 10,000 simultaneously functions as a confirmation of the still bearish trend of lower highs since December 2017 (see next section).
In order to maintain the recent positive picture in the daily interval, the created support zone around the USD 8,800 mark should not be breached (green). The next support zone is the area just above 8'000 USD where the 200-day moving average (1) is located. The positive structure of the micro-trend is endangered by a renewed test of the zone 7'500 - 7'700 USD. The area around 7'000 USD can serve as a last support before the confident structure suffers lasting damage.
Macro: On the threshold of a trend reversal
Bitcoin has so far failed to set a higher high in the weekly interval, which would have broken the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. In its last attempt since the beginning of the year, the upward trend in the relevant zone at around USD 10,500 failed to establish itself. The countermovement that began in mid-March after the sharp price correction brings the price once again to the trend line, which is the result of the lower highs since the end of 2017.
If the negative macro picture is to be broken, the tendency of lower highs since 2017 must be sustainably overcome. This should be legitimized with several weekly candles above the USD 10,000 mark in order to rule out false outbreaks such as those in July 2019. The current establishment in the new range looks sustainable and should take place in the coming weeks above the USD 8,000 - 8,200 zone, as well as above the 21-week average (1) in order not to cloud the new positive picture again.
If another rejection below the USD 7,000 zone were to occur, support in the lower range of the macro trend is expected from the 200-week average (2) at USD 5,900, which has never been broken since its inception, and from the trend line (3) of the respective lows of the upward trend since March 2017.
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Notice of risk
Investments and investments, especially in crypto-currencies, are generally associated with risk. The total loss of the invested capital cannot be excluded. Crypto-currencies are very volatile and can therefore be subject to extreme exchange rate fluctuations within a short period of time.