Weekly Bitcoin USD chart analysis calendar week 41 – 2021

Bitcoin USD daily basis

Bitcoin USD chart analysis - all-time high within reach

During the reporting week, Bitcoin not only defended its impressive gains of the previous week but even extended them further. After cracking the historic resistance level around 52,000 USD the week before, the price consolidated in the 54,500 area until Sunday. Already on Monday, the bottoming above the resistance was seen as a positive sign and triggered renewed buying, which took Bitcoin to 57,487 USD by the close of trading.  On Tuesday as well as on Wednesday, trading took place between 54,000 and 57,500 USD with unclear tendency. A first attempt to climb higher spheres failed for the time being on Thursday with another daily close just below 57,500 USD. On Friday, however, the highest daily gain of the week followed, which let the Bitcoin price in the daily high even with 63,000 USD close to the all-time high at 64,000 USD. After that, however, sales brought the price back to 61,695 USD towards the end of trading. Over the weekend, the first profit-taking set in, which caused the price to exit the market slightly lower on Saturday at 60,877 USD and on Sunday at prices around 61,000 USD.

The moment of truth approaches

Review daily interval

After the price drop in mid-March 2020, a veritable countermovement established itself. This led to resistance zones above USD 10,000. After an initial rejection and a consolidation phase lasting almost two months, a breakout through the fundamental resistance zone followed on July 27, which had been established since August 2019 and had already caused Bitcoin to fail several times to date.

The resistance zone around USD 10,000 was interesting in several respects. On the one hand, the 0.618 Fibonacci point of the entire downward movement, which was initiated at the end of June 2019 just below 14,000 USD, is located here. On the other hand, the zone around USD 10,000 simultaneously acted as a confirmation of the still bearish trend from lower highs since December 2017 (see the macro view on a weekly basis). Bitcoin was able to establish itself above the newly created support in the USD 10,000 area since the end of July 2020 and provided the first confirmation of a trend reversal with the break of the resistance zone around USD 12,200 towards the end of October 2020. In the following weeks, the positive trend accentuated and led Bitcoin through the 14,000 resistance in early November 2020 and close to the then all-time highs around 20,000 USD for the first time in early December, which remained untouched for 158 weeks since the bull market in 2017.

Since the breakout through the important 14,000 resistance at the beginning of November, it has been blow by blow. The breakout through the old all-time high at USD 20,000 saw a strong accentuation of the uptrend, which saw the bitcoin price mark it's new all-time high just below USD 65,000 on April 14. However, the rapid upward movement was abruptly stopped in mid-May and led back to the 30,000 USD areas. Subsequently, the price consolidated in the USD 30,000 - 40,000 corridor for three months until breaking out of the upper range of the corridor at the end of July. The subsequent countermovement led to the historical resistance in the area of 52,000 USD. After an initial failure, Bitcoin was able to overcome the resistance zone on October 6 and has since been fighting its way back to the highs, which were last reached in mid-April.

Outlook

A "roundig bottom scenario" in the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci point, which is calculated between the start of the rapid uptrend and the new all-time high, has manifested itself in a strong upward movement. The impressive counter-movement came determined and brought Bitcoin directly to the 52,000 resistance for the time being. A first failure led back to the 40'000 zone. In the second attempt, Bitcoin cracked the prominent resistance zone and moved in the reporting week with a high at 63'000 USD already just below the all-time high.

The price area around USD 52,000 has repeatedly played a determining role since February and was accordingly classified as significant resistance. The price action in the reporting week impressively underlined the renewed bullish momentum after the "retest" of the 40,000 support zone. With the recent overcoming of the 52,000 resistance level, the mission of an all-time high is moving impressively within reach, while the probability of a "bull trap" is weakening strongly. In order to continue to live up to this scenario, an incipient correction should not lead back below the 52,000 area, which now serves as support.

Scenario new all-time high vs. scenario bull trap 1:0

Review Weekly Interval

Bitcoin was able to set a higher high above USD 10,000 for the first time in the weekly interval in 2020, which broke the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. This broke the series of lower highs that lasted for 135 weeks (1).

Since this first overcoming of the bearish trend, the signs for a valid trend reversal became stronger. With the push through important resistance zones and a continuous development above the 21-week average (2), the probabilities for a renewed reaching of the all-time high created in 2017/18 increased visibly. This was accomplished in mid-December 2020. This was followed by a strongly accentuated price discovery above this historical mark, which produced a new all-time high of USD 65,000 in mid-April. A consolidation initiated since then ended in a veritable price slide that took Bitcoin back to the USD 30,000 mark in just two weeks. A subsequent breakout from the 10-week consolidation area of 30,000 - 40,000 USD and a subsequent successful retest of the upper range at 40,000 USD brings Bitcoin back close to the all-time high in an impressive countermovement.

Outlook

With the price movements in the past year, a good foundation has been created to sustainably climb new spheres beyond the all-time highs reached in 2017. The break of the USD 20,000 mark impressively demonstrated the power of the upward movement that has been established since October. The rapid price increase was abruptly interrupted in mid-April with a price drop that even brought Bitcoin below the 21-week average (2) that has defined reliable bull or bear market phases in the past.

Bitcoin was able to overcome the subsequent correction phase in the USD 30,000 - 40,000 zone after 3 months. This consolidation also took place in the interesting 0.618 Fibonacci area since the start of the bull market. The breakout from the upper price band of the three-month corridor was the first sign that the bulls had not yet given up. The incipient countermovement, which led back to the 52,000 resistance, negated a forming shoulder-head-shoulder formation and again underlined the claim of a continued bull phase.

The justification for a price discovery beyond the all-time high was consolidated last month. A "retest" of the 40,000 zone, which from then on served as support and where the 21-week average sometimes also runs, was successfully completed by the end of September. The scenario was crowned in the last two weeks with the break of the 52,000 resistance zone.  A "make it or break it" situation is inevitably emerging in the current price area in subsequent weeks. The price action in the reporting week increases the chances for a new price discovery above the all-time high and weakens the scenario of a "bull trap".