Bitcoin USD daily basis
Bitcoin USD Chart Analysis - 45,000 Resistance Zone Temporary End of the Counter-Movement
During the reporting week, the market showed that the previous strong upward movement since the lows in the 34'000 USD area was not sustainable. After reaching the preliminary high of the current countermovement at USD 45,833 in the previous week, Bitcoin continued its weekend consolidation in the area above USD 42,000 on Monday. The price was expected to hold at this level to increase the possibilities for a continuation of the recent positive trend. In fact, on Tuesday, there was a gain of a good 5%, which brought the price back to the resistance already seen in the previous week at 44,586 USD. The market then took a breather on Wednesday, resulting in a slightly lower daily closing price at USD 43,882. The signs for continued price gains and a breakthrough of the resistances were therefore not bad, but the market decided on Thursday for the other direction. The onset of selling brought the price back over the day to 40,557 USD and thus in a rush to the 40,000 support area. Thursday was therefore a clear wake-up call to the bulls that the market is still in a correction phase since reaching the all-time high at USD 69,000. Accordingly, the weekend turned out to be discouraging. There was further selling, which increased until Sunday and let the price go out of the week at 38,000 USD.
Break of groundbreaking supports
Daily Interval Review
After the mid-March 2020 price plunge, a veritable countermovement established itself. This led to the resistance zones above 10,000 USD. After an initial rejection and a consolidation phase of almost two months, a breakthrough through the fundamental resistance zone followed on July 27, 2020, which persisted since August 2019 and accordingly caused Bitcoin to fail several times already.
The area around USD 10,000, which served as resistance, was interesting in several respects. On the one hand, the 0.618 Fibonacci point of the entire downward movement, which was initiated at the end of June 2019 just below USD 14,000, was located in this price area. On the other hand, the zone around USD 10,000 simultaneously acted as a witness of the still bearish trend from lower highs since December 2017 (see macro view on weekly basis). Bitcoin was able to establish itself above the newly created support in the USD 10,000 area since the end of July 2020 and provided the first confirmation of a trend reversal of the bear market that had persisted since 2018 with the break of the resistance zone around USD 12,200 towards the end of October 2020. In the following weeks, the positive trend accentuated and led Bitcoin through the 14,000 resistance in early November 2020 and close to the then all-time highs around 20,000 USD for the first time in early December, which remained untouched for 158 weeks since the bull market in 2017.
With the breakthrough of the old all-time high at USD 20,000, the trend reversal was definitely heralded. Accordingly, there was a strong accentuation of the uptrend, which brought the Bitcoin price to its new all-time high just below 65,000 USD in just over 4 months. However, the rapid upward movement was abruptly halted in mid-May 2020, taking Bitcoin back to the USD 30,000 areas. After a three-month consolidation phase, the upward movement was continued no less spectacularly after a "rounding bottom" in the 0.61 Fibonacci area, which finally ended with a new all-time high at USD 69,000 in October 2020 after a "retest" of the 40,000 zone. Since then, a strong correction phase has dominated once again, which is currently leading the Bitcoin price back to trend-determining price territories.
Outlook Daily Interval
Just 73 days after reaching an all-time high at USD 69,000, the break of the 40,000 support zone at the end of the previous month suggests a change of course. The bull run, which has lasted over 401 days, seems to be running out of steam. Accordingly, the further direction of travel could turn out to be longer sideways movements and the bottom formation in the 34,000 area still has to prove itself.
The recent notable countermove into the $45,000 area could be attributed to an initial reaction to an oversold market. The impressive feedback of the bulls led directly to the dominant resistance zone, whose price area since January 2021 often gave a new direction. The just conquered 40,000 zone could not be defended during the reporting week, which suggests a retest of the 35,000 USD area. In the medium term, the price should establish itself above 42,000 USD to grant a continued constructive price formation. Finally, the series of lower highs in the area of 45,000 USD must be broken sustainably to herald a trend reversal of the correction since the all-time high.
New price formation phase shows weakness
Review Weekly Interval
Bitcoin was able to set a higher high above USD 10,000 for the first time in the weekly interval in 2020, which broke the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. This broke the series of lower highs that lasted for 135 weeks (1).
Since this first overcoming of the bearish trend, the signs for a valid trend reversal became stronger. With the push through important resistance zones and a continuous development above the 21-week average (2), the probabilities for a renewed reaching of the all-time high created in 2017/18 increased visibly. This scenario was completed in mid-December 2020. This was followed by a strongly accentuated price discovery above this historical zone, which produced a new all-time high of USD 65,000 in mid-April. A consolidation initiated since then ended in a veritable price slide that brought Bitcoin back to the 30,000 USD mark in just two weeks, even below the 21-week average (2) that has defined reliable bull or bear market phases in the past.
However, a subsequent breakout from the 10-week USD 30,000 - 40,000 consolidation area and a subsequent successful "retest" of the upper range of this channel most recently took Bitcoin above the all-time high created in April in an impressive counter-movement. After the creation of the new all-time high in the 69,000 USD area in November 2021, a vehement correction phase set in again, analogous to the pattern observed in May. This initially led to the break of the 50,000 support zone, which then promptly caused a bounce in this area, which now acts as resistance. Accordingly, the last few weeks were once again characterized by the correction phase that has dominated for two months now and even caused Bitcoin to break through the important 40,000 support zone most recently.
Outlook weekly interval
The massive bull phase, which has lasted since July 2021 and originated from the healthy 0.618 Fibonacci area, which has been calculated since the start of the bull market and the all-time high of April, has recently been put to the test. The undershooting of the 40,000 area makes a rapid continued price discovery beyond the 69,000 all-time high a distant prospect for now. The market is setting a slower pace with the risk of falling into a bear market.
The series of higher weekly lows and highs, respectively, since October 2020 is in tact, but significant cracks have appeared in the foundation due to the undershooting of the 40'000 zone. The break of the trend line since the start of the uptrend and a negative looking "Head and Shoulder" formation complete the deterioration of the technical picture. The weekly RSI index (3), which showed a negative divergence with the price trend despite an all-time high, had indicated that the momentum was on weak legs. The correction in recent weeks impressively confirmed the picture of this indicator.
Since reaching a new all-time high at USD 69,000 three months ago, the bitcoin price has corrected by around 50%. Historically, such price behaviour has been observed more often even in bull market phases. The ultimate deciding battle between the bulls and bears would take place in the 30'000 area. In this zone is the 0.618 Fibonacci area, which has been calculated since the beginning of the bull market and the all-time high. A sustained undershooting of this zone would also undercut the price area already contested in July 2021, which would come close to bear market confirmation. For the time being, the 45,000 resistance level and the aforementioned support zone serve as indicators for the further price trend.
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