Bitcoin closed the month of February below $80K, registering a 17% decline, its steepest monthly drop since June 2022. This downturn was significantly influenced by the announcement of Trump's trade tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, which triggered a wave of fear in the market, leading to a broad cryptocurrency sell-off.
Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs saw substantial outflows, totaling over $3 billion across eight days-the largest withdrawal since their launch in January 2024. Concurrently, interest in Bitcoin appears to be waning. Google Trends data shows searches for 'Bitcoin' peaked around November 2024, following Trump's re-election and Bitcoin's surge to $100,000. However, search volume has since retreated to pre-Q4 2024 levels.
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Announcement of a US crypto reserve brings trust in the crypto market
Trump's announcement of a US Crypto Strategic Reserve on Sunday March 2nd resulted in an increase in crypto prices with market cap growing over $300 billion within 24 hours. The Strategic Reserve plans to include major digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano, following which Bitcoin's price rose over 11% to $94,164, while Ethereum increased by approximately 13% to $2,516. With the introduction of this national reserve in crypto, the new U.S. administration has aligned with its initial promise of accelerating crypto adoption. This step has positioned the U.S. amongst regions with high levels of crypto advancements.
Next move to watch are the reactions from the SEC with its "Crypto Task Force" and IRS on this stance on taxations around the same. The upcoming White House Crypto Summit is expected to provide additional insights into the administration's plans for the crypto sector. With this there can be a domino effect amongst other countries who may reconsider their crypto policies with more leniency potentially accelerating international regulatory shifts worldwide.
BTC and ETH rebound: the sign of a new bullish trend?
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading within a projected range of $85,000–$102,000, with ETF inflows playing a critical role in its near-term trajectory. Strong inflow data this week could push BTC above $100,000, potentially testing $102,000. Meanwhile, historical halving cycles suggest price consolidation between $95,000 and $100,000, positioning March as a buildup phase ahead of more pronounced movements in mid-2025. Key levels to watch include $91,000 as support and $100,000 as psychological resistance, with a potential drop below $85,000 quickly testing $80,000 if bearish sentiment dominates.
Ethereum (ETH) remains within a $2,300–$2,800 range, with upside potential linked to the Pectra upgrade, expected in Q1 2025. If testnet progress or deployment timelines improve, ETH could rally toward $3,800 or even $4,000. Additionally, BTC’s performance will significantly impact ETH’s movement—if BTC breaks $100,000, ETH could rise to $2,600–$2,800, while a BTC decline to $85,000 might drag ETH to $2,200. With an RSI of 27.94, ETH is currently oversold, suggesting a potential bounce if buying momentum resumes. However, a failure to hold above its 25-day SMA ($2,590) could lead to further downside before a meaningful recovery.
The trajectory of the crypto market hinges on China’s response, Federal Reserve actions, and whether Trump’s regulatory support counterbalances macroeconomic headwinds. Critical developments are expected within the next 30 days, making this period pivotal for market clarity.
