Bitcoin has gained roughly 11 percent since the Iran war began on February 28. In contrast, gold lost about 15 percent over the same period, and the S&P 500 also declined. These findings come from a new report by JPMorgan, published on Wednesday by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
The numbers are clear. Gold ETFs recorded outflows of approximately $11 billion during the first three weeks of March. At the same time, silver ETFs lost all the inflows they had accumulated since summer 2025. Bitcoin funds, however, posted net inflows. Specifically, BlackRock's IBIT attracted about 1.5 percent of its AUM, while the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) shed roughly 2.7 percent.
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Precious metals under liquidity pressure
JPMorgan cites several factors behind the weakness in gold and silver. Rising interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar are weighing on traditional inflation hedges. In addition, profit-taking by investors who built large positions during the late-2024 gold rally is adding to the pressure. Gold reached a record high of around $5,500 per ounce in January 2026. It currently trades at approximately $4,450, a decline of nearly 20 percent.
Liquidity pressure is amplifying the selloff further. Margin calls are triggering forced liquidations and driving prices lower. By the end of 2025, massive gold and silver positions had built up on the CME. These positions have been unwinding sharply since January. Panigirtzoglou describes this as a structural deterioration of market conditions for precious metals.
Silver suffered the steepest losses. From a peak of around $120 per ounce, the price fell to roughly $69. This represents a classic correction after the preceding rally's overshoot.
Bitcoin shows clear divergence from gold for the first time
The JPMorgan report marks a turning point in a long-running debate. For years, institutions viewed Bitcoin as a risk-on asset with high correlation to tech stocks. Concrete data supporting a safe-haven function simply did not exist. The Iran war now provides the first empirical evidence of divergent behavior during a major geopolitical shock.
"The deterioration in gold's liquidity conditions has caused gold's market breadth to fall below that of Bitcoin." - Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan
Notably, it is not only the price but also institutional positioning that supports this thesis. CME Bitcoin futures remained stable in recent weeks, while gold and silver futures experienced massive position unwinds. As a result, capital is not simply flowing out of precious metals. It is partly rotating into Bitcoin products.
Crypto usage in war zones rises
Chainalysis data show a significant increase in crypto activity across regions affected by the Iran war. Residents are increasingly transferring funds into self-custody and onto international platforms. This confirms a pattern from earlier conflicts. Cryptocurrencies serve as a capital flight mechanism when traditional financial infrastructure comes under stress.
On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched Operation "Epic Fury" with airstrikes on Iran. Since then, the conflict has escalated rapidly. The humanitarian toll after nearly one month exceeds 2,000 casualties. Furthermore, hundreds of thousands of people across Iran, Lebanon, and Israel have been displaced. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel. And while traditional markets shifted to risk-off, Bitcoin held firm.
Context: JPMorgan and the Bitcoin revaluation
JPMorgan had already categorized Bitcoin as "digital gold" in earlier reports. However, robust data confirming an actual safe-haven function during crises had been lacking until now. Panigirtzoglou's current report provides the first data-driven analysis. It systematically compares flow data, institutional positioning, momentum signals, and liquidity conditions.
For institutional adoption, this matters. If Bitcoin outperforms gold in a real geopolitical stress scenario, it changes the allocation logic for portfolio managers. Previously, Bitcoin occupied a spot in institutional portfolios primarily as a growth component. A demonstrated hedge function opens a different discussion: Bitcoin as strategic diversification in multi-asset portfolios.
Meanwhile, the war is entering its fourth week. According to CNN, Trump is considering a "winding down" of military activities. In addition, the U.S. recently extended its pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. Whether Bitcoin's outperformance can survive a de-escalation phase will likely be central to allocation decisions in the coming weeks.
