Technical Analysis
Good Morning!
Currently, the market is a bit more exciting than last week. The altcoin and major large cap moves are refreshing to say the least.
BTC$ (daily)
It looks like we have a confirmed breakout, now after pushing through 10.5k. It looks legit also in combination with the spike in volume (spot and derivatives). What concerns me a little bit are the very overstretched derivatives. Funding and term basis are at the upper end of their range.
Maybe the retest of the breakout point will relax the situation in derivatives so that we have enough firepower to push towards 13-14k (the next resistance).
ETH$ (daily)
The situation in the Ethereum market is very similar. We saw a nice breakout above $290 with a good volume spike and an almost vertical trend towards the last big resistance of $380.
Here, too, the market needs some time to breathe, otherwise we will find ourselves in an unhealthy state, which will result in a sharp selloff. $290 should hold and I would regard a move down to this level (in combination with some relaxation in the derivatives market) as a good and healthy correction.
ETHBTC (daily)
We reached our target of 0.03060. But you had to be disciplined and take profit because we came down rather quickly with Bitcoin (BTC) rallying over the past 24 hours.
ETHBTC (4h)
We have done a 50% retracement of the current upmove. I still like being long ETHBTC. A good entry level to establish some fresh longs is between 0.02810 and 0.02890.
ALTPERP$ (daily)
After the breakout to the upside of that three-month old range of 475-605, we shot up towards the largest liquidity pool (at around 670). If we see some corrections and the price moves closer to 605, we will consider it a nice buying opportunity. The stop should be placed just below 605.
MIDPERP$ (daily)
We have seen a remarkable comeback after the March low for this index. Nearly an increase of 250% so far. The trend still looks healthy but we might have to get ready for a correction. I would regard a move lower towards 700 as a healthy correction. If we reach 660, it will be a deep correction but a nice buying opportunity. Stop below 550.
SHITPERP$ (daily)
This index has been even more impressive, with a performance of over 300% since the March low. But the current wave structure looks like we are running out of steam. I will use the Ichimoku cloud for warning signs. The first one will be the baseline (blue). The second one is the upper band of the cloud, and the third one is the lower band of the cloud. I will disregard the bearish view in case we reach new highs. For all you brave ones out there this would also be my stop level for any short positions.
DEFIPERP$ (4h)
It is still a very new instrument but on a 4h chart still worth keeping an eye on. We have seen a nice bullish structure over the past month. But with the rather large correction over the past 24-48 hours, the signs have turned. Let's see if this bounce has some legs, and how it will react when it gets close to the Ichimoku cloud. I see 1,800 as the resistance, and am looking for a turn towards 1,400.
