Technical Analysis
Good Morning!
DeFi is still a hot topic. Therefore, we we will include a technical analysis of a few coins today.
But first let's begin with the big ones...
Bitcoin BTC$ (4h)
Bitcoin is a tough cookie to trade right now. We pushed lower: even below 11.4k (on a daily closing basis). It looks like there was/is a s/r flip line I did not see. 11.1k has provided decent support as well as some fear reactions from the bulls. We have bounced several times now.
On the topside, we are still struggling to take out 11.8k to generate fresh momentum for the attack towards the recent top of 12.4k.
I am fairly neutral at the moment and have no leveraged positions on right now. I'll wait until we break to the upside of 11.8k, or to the downside of 11.1k, with good volume and print a daily closing above or below.
Ethereum ETH$ (4h)
Oh boy! This little bastard is giving me the shivers. When the price fell below $380 it really felt like we were going to crap out and fall off the cliff. But we didn't, and all you brave ones who collected some long positions in the area I mentioned last week are laughing now.
After the price got some resistance on the upper end of the box it took off like a rocket. We hit a new recent high and are currently trading above $450.
In my opinion, physical buying is the driver of the ETH$ price. The DeFi hype is the rocket fuel. However, the derivatives market is unimpressed and is simply ticking along, with term basis and perpetual funding in a neutral zone. One thing to mention, though, is that as the September contract gets closer to maturity I will start keeping an eye on the term structure further out the curve to see if it goes steeper. This would be a sign that the leveraged guys are going in as well. And this would be a sign that a blow-off top is near.
Ethereum/Bitcoin ETHBTC (4h)
There's not much to add to last week's comment. So, play the game: be long as long as the wave structure is valid. When we see that the market needs to breathe and start to correct, we will draw the Fibonacci levels to see how deep things can go.
Technical Analysis DeFi Coins
ATOM$ (4h) - Cosmos
The correction went deeper than I thought it would (below the yellow box). From a Fibonacci point of view, we corrected just a bit over 50%, which is good and healthy. Let's see if ATOM has some juice left in it to go higher over the course of the next week.
BAND$ (4h) - Band Protocol
We got the confirmation I was looking for by breaking out of the Ichimoku cloud. Having said that, however, the price reaction since then has been rather disappointing. But the wave structure is still valid and a proper break through the $14 level would indicate to me that we are reaching the $18 target.
LINK$ (4h) - Chainlink
This is closer to the reaction I was looking for (also for BAND$) when the price breaks through the Ichimoku cloud. Now we need to hold the price above the cloud. Taking out the local top of $18 will clear the path up to the recent top of $20. In terms of the downside, I do not want to see the price go below $13.50.
LEND$ (4h) – Aave
The correction I was looking for happened. When hitting the 50% Fibonacci level, I will go long around the current levels with a first target of the recent high of $0.90. I will then add some more at around $0.65 and give it one last shot at $0.58.
Stops must be taken below $0.52.
OMG$ (4h) – OMG Network
Not my best call I have to admit. It looks like there is some support at the $5 mark. Get out of your longs if it starts trading below that.
Two new tokens, SRM$ and SOL$, are also on my radar. But due to the lack of data points they are a bit tough to chart. But here's a hint: they look bullish.
