Technical Analysis
Good Morning!
Luckily, the bitcoin move happened yesterday. Otherwise, my TA would have been outdated within mere minutes.
With a move of such magnitude, it makes sense to zoom out a great deal and have a look at the price developments over the last five years.
Bitcoin BTC$ (weekly)
Ever since we broke through the Ichimoku cloud and the cloud itself turned bullish, we have been on a parabolic upmove. I have marked certain macro events and announcements that helped to start build the solid fundamentals for bitcoin to become a store of value.
The problem with parabolic moves is determining when we are due for a correction. And usually that correction can be very deep and painful for all late entries. In the past, I mentioned that I wanted to see a blow-off top that would be a sign or indication for a break in the parabolic move. I believe we have not seen that blow-off top yet.
Maybe it is because, on the supply side, we only have the miners and no other "natural" shorters other than the speculators that were burned yet again with a whopping $1.1bio liquidation amount over the past 24h.
The CME COT report shows that hedge funds are running a bitcoin short position, which I believe is not a net short position but a curve (funding) play. They are long spot versus short the futures.
So, who will stop the bitcoin train? Yet again, it is probably our own greed. The price and market structures need to reach ultra-streched levels. This is usually triggered by the very late entries of retail money. Given the current market capitalisation of bitcoin, the floodgates really need to open on a wide scale so that a lot of that retail money can flow into that asset class.
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