Bitcoin/USD daily basis
Bitcoin USD daily basis – a drop returns bitcoin to USD10,000
In the reporting week, Bitcoin continued the rising trend from the USD 10,000 mark, which formed at the end of the previous week. Thus, on Monday, the 10'800 USD could already be approached again with the largest daily profit of the week. This was followed by four trading days with consistently higher daily lows and highs, which took the price to just over USD 11,000. After a rejection at the weekly high of only over 11,200 USD on Saturday, a correction to the last trading day of the week followed. This led the price back into the zone around 10'800 USD on Sunday.
The first test of the newly created support
Review of the daily interval
A veritable countermovement established itself after the price slump in mid-March. This led up to the resistance zones starting at USD 10,000. After a renewed rejection at the beginning of June, an almost two-month consolidation was observed. This was characterized by a series of higher daily lows and lower daily highs. The series of lower highs was broken on 22 July. This was followed on July 27 by a break through the resistance zone around USD 10,500, which has been established since August 2019 and which Bitcoin has already failed to break several times.
The resistance zone around USD 10,000 was interesting in several respects. On the one hand, the 0.618 Fibonacci point (1) of the entire downward movement, which was heralded at the end of June 2019 just below USD 14,000, is located here. On the other hand, the zone around $10,000 also served as a confirmation of the still bearish trend of lower highs since December 2017 (see next section). This zone now counts as a significant support (green).
Outlook
Bitcoin is currently testing the newly created support in the 10,000 USD range. This zone serves as an essential pillar of a positive trend. In the reporting week, the price of the 10'000 USD was able to move upwards continuously. The movement reached the resistance levels created by the previous supports, which had formed between the end of July and the beginning of September (3). These resistances above USD 11,200 should be overcome in the next few days; otherwise, this week's movement is to be seen as a countermovement of the sharp correction of September 3 and, therefore, negative (bearish retest).
The next few days will indicate the strength of the bulls. If the resistances above 11'200 USD can be broken, the resistances above 12'000 USD will still be decisive (red). These are significant and continue to indicate whether the market is serious about the recent trend reversal.
Should the USD 10'000 fall, further support is expected below USD 9'500 from trading activities from the end of April to the mid/end of July 2020 (green). The 200 daily average is now located in this area (2). In such a scenario, a longer-term consolidation in the USD 9,000 - 11,000 range is expected.
Macro: Series of lower highs broken since end of 2017
Bitcoin was able to set a higher high for the first time in the weekly interval, breaking the prevailing bearish trend since December 2017. The series of lower highs, which lasted for 135 weeks, was thus interrupted (marker). In order to change the negative macro picture into a valid trend reversal, the breakout should be legitimized by several weekly candles above the USD 10’000 mark.
An establishment above USD 10’000 and a consistent overcoming of the resistance around USD 12’000 over the next weeks speak for a legitimacy of the trend reversal. If the Bitcoin price can then consolidate above USD 12,000 again, the chances of an attack on the all-time high of a good USD 20,000 would certainly exist.
A drop in the price, which would bring the price back into the USD 9,500 range and below over several weeks, would damage the positive momentum and argue for a longer consolidation.
Haftungsausschluss
Alle Angaben in dieser Publikation erfolgen ausschliesslich zu allgemeinen Informationszwecken. Die in dieser Publikation zur Verfügung gestellten Informationen stellen keine Anlageberatung dar und sind auch nicht als solche beabsichtigt. Diese Publikation stellt kein Angebot und keine Empfehlung oder Aufforderung für eine Anlage in ein Finanzinstrument einschliesslich Kryptowährungen und dergleichen dar und ist auch nicht als Angebot, Empfehlung oder Aufforderung beabsichtigt. Die in der Publikation enthaltenen Inhalte stellen die persönliche Meinung der jeweiligen Autoren dar und sind nicht als Entscheidungsgrundlage geeignet oder beabsichtigt.
Risikohinweis
Anlagen und Investitionen, insbesondere in Kryptowährungen, sind grundsätzlich mit Risiko verbunden. Der Totalverlust des eingesetzten Kapitals kann nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Kryptowährungen sind sehr volatil und können daher in kurzer Zeit extremen Kursschwanken ausgesetzt sein.
