Author: Patrick Heusser

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! BTC$ (4h) My claim in last week’ report was both right and wrong. We did attempt to break higher, but failed. However, the failure did not result in as deep a sell-off as I was expecting. There is continuous buying interest coming in on the physical spot front (mainly on Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Kraken). The leverage skew is still on the buying side. We tend to see more and bigger liquidation tickets when the market swiftly moves lower compared to aggressive spikes to the upside. The Ichimoku cloud has been…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! “Sky Net” has launched: Judgement Day is near… But don’t worry, it won’t be as dramatic as Linda Hamilton’s experience in Terminator. However, there were some hefty measures taken by the Chinese government in terms of privacy rights. China wants to fight the corona virus with a digital QR code I am talking about the Health-QR code that was implemented on Chinese citizens’ smartphones. If you haven’t been following the developments, the news article below summarises things very nicely: China is fighting the coronavirus with a digital QR code. Here’s…

Weekly Rotationreport CW20 from Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Inhalt 1 Rotation Analysis 2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis 3 Top Ten Comparison 4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison 5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis 6 Market Cap Overview Glossary 1. Rotation Analysis A new situation for miners The bitcoin halving was the major event last week. The final block (629,999 with a subsidy of 12.5 BTC just before the halving) was mined by a Chinese mining pool on May 11, 2020 at 7:23 pm. The miner also included a message in its transaction, immortalising a NY Times article that highlighted the…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! The Bitcoin Halving is now a thing of the past, and life goes on… Many retail traders were either shook out of their positions before the halving, or did not get their post-halving rally like so many were shouting about on crypto twitter. A similar misconception was the expected drop in hash-rate. Both price and hash-rate do not move in sync with events and it is never a straight line on the time axis. It is similar to the term “it is priced in”. These days information nearly travels at…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! BTC$ (4h) The price is slightly lower now compared to where we were when last week’s report came out. The volatility in between, however, was quite high. I believe the media hype around the Bitcoin Halving has not helped, and retailers got sucked into the “Crypto Casino” with high leverage on various trading platforms, e.g. Binance, Huobi, and BitMEX. I mention those three names in the ranking order of the liquidation amounts. Over the past seven days, Binance has shown by far the highest liquidation amount, and I consider Binance…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! Close but no cigar… I’ll keep it brief today because not much has changed since my weekend update. The weekly chart on logarithmic and non-logarithmic shows another failure to break to the upside (upper leg of the triangle). BTC$ weekly logarithmic BTC$ weekly non-logarithmic This indicates another drawback towards the middle of the triangle at around 7.3k with some consolidation. After that I expect to see another push to the upside. 7.3k is also important on a daily chart level and the respective Ichimoku cloud. As long as we trade…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! I hate to spoil the party, but I believe that CT “overcooked” the Paul Tudor Jones story. His investor newsletter definitely sends a strong message to the traditional investment community, which has not yet taken a closer look at “alternative” assets to hedge against a possible rise in global inflation. But there is one sentence that leads me to believe that he has not yet had any exposure to bitcoin: “We have updated the Tudor BVI offering memoranda to disclose that we may trade Bitcoin futures for Tudor BVI. We…

Weekly Rotationreport CW19 from Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Inhalt 1 Rotation Analysis 2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis 3 Top Ten Comparison 4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison 5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis 6 Market Cap Overview Glossary 1. Rotation Analysis Support by halving BTC continues to perform, and is currently carrying all the other coins. The important resistance of 9,300 has been reached and the next one is between 10,000 and 10,300. So far, the market push has come mainly from cash buyers, and the overall market keeps following the spot prices. Interesting fact: bitcoin halving searches on Google…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! After listening to Warren Buffett speak at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting, I thought it was time to start looking out for reports attempting to valuate tokens/coins with a “running” business. For all of you who did not listen to this, one of Buffett’s statements was that he does not know of any worthwhile investments (companies to buy) at the moment. Stock-to-flow model sees prices of up to 250k In the crypto space, bitcoin has a prominent valuation model called S2F (Stock-to-Flow). It pictures a steady upmove on a long-term chart…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! Retail cash buying continues. The pushes we have seen in the 9k area are driven mainly by cash buying. It has caught some sellers by surprise. What I mean by this is that during the rally that started on April 29, the network was clocked up due to large coin movements, which resulted in a massive delay and a spike in transaction fees. This, in turn, fuelled the rally even more. BTC$ (4h) We are seeing some good support at around 8.5k, and cash buying continues. There is a little…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! So… what’s the market waiting for? And I’m not necessarily just talking about the crypto market. All markets seem to be slowly, but surely falling back into the complacency mode we are all so familiar with. Volatility is decreasing in all the markets (even commodities). Global equities are printing small gains every day; the corporate bond market has stabilised; and most government bond yields are back in negative territory. But fundamentals do not look very promising. We have seen some really bad earnings for aviation, automobile, and big retailers over…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! The market is still in a consolidation phase. And the upper and lower levels of the band are increasing in significance. BTC$ (4h) 7.5k is the big resistance for all the bulls. There is still constant supply coming in as soon we start trading close to the upper band of our wide consolidation range of 4.9k – 7.5k. There are always two ways to look at tested support/resistance levels. Some say multiple testing makes them weak, whereas others think the opposite. I believe that you have to look at additional…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! I have the perfect weekend read for you. The news blog, Profit&Loss, conducted a well crafted interview with some respected executives and specialists in the crypto asset space. The core topics are: – Bitcoin halving – Safe heaven assets – CBDC (central bank digital currencies) – Adoption/Outlook for the crypto asset space It is a good one-hour read, but it will give you a concise summary about the state of the crypto asset market. Read it here. In addition to this report, I found it very interesting how ICE is…

Marktcommentary from Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Inhalt 1 Rotation Analysis 2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis 3 Top Ten Comparison 4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison 5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis 6 Market Cap Overview Glossary 1. Rotation Analysis A tight trading range Overall, BTC traded between the short-term support of 6,500 and the resistance of 7,300. No major rotations took place last week. There was major news from the commodity market. Oil continues to be under pressure, and the CME May futures contract turned negative and traded for a long time in a negative zone. Eventually, it settled with…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! The Lendf.Me hacker returned the money. The CEO of Lendf.Me announced yesterday that almost all of the hacked tokens have been returned. Read more about it here: Lendf.Me Update and Action Plan. However, when you dig a bit deeper into various Twitter threads, it looks like the hacker was rather dumb in the execution of transferring the tokens. See here. Was the pressure too high for the hacker? Some people have been speculating that the community and Singaporean law enforcement pressured the hacker to transfer the tokens back. Again, I…

Market Commentary von Patrick Heusser, Crypto Finance AG Good Morning! The market is still in a consolidation phase. And the upper and lower levels of the band are increasing in significance. BTC$ (4h) 7.5k is the big resistance for all the bulls. There is still constant supply coming in as soon we start trading close to the upper band of our wide consolidation range of 4.9k – 7.5k. There are always two ways to look at tested support/resistance levels. Some say multiple testing makes them weak, whereas others think the opposite. I believe that you have to look at additional…