Coinbase Global has announced its entry into prediction markets and stock trading. The largest US crypto exchange is integrating event contracts through a partnership with CFTC-regulated provider Kalshi and will offer commission-free trading in stocks and ETFs.
The announcement was made during the “System Update 2025” event in San Francisco, where CEO Brian Armstrong presented the vision of an “Everything Exchange” – a platform that allows users to trade all asset classes in one place. The stock closed regular trading at USD 244.19 and gained 2 percent in after-hours trading to USD 249.09. This strategic realignment positions Coinbase in direct competition with Robinhood, which has been offering event contracts via its own Kalshi partnership since August 2025.
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Prediction markets: Event contracts as a regulated financial instrument
Prediction markets allow users to speculate on the outcomes of real-world events. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classifies these event contracts as derivatives rather than gambling. Technically, they are binary options with “Yes” or “No” payouts, traded between USD 0.01 and USD 0.99. Correct predictions pay out USD 1, while incorrect contracts expire worthless.
Pricing is determined by market mechanisms: If 80 percent of participants expect a “Yes” outcome, the “Yes” position costs around USD 0.80, while the “No” position trades at USD 0.20. This price development reflects the collective probability assessment of market participants.
Kalshi became the first platform to receive a CFTC license as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) for event contracts in 2020. A legal dispute over political election contracts ended in October 2024 with a court ruling in favor of Kalshi, classifying event contracts as legitimate financial derivatives. The CFTC withdrew its appeal, solidifying the regulatory framework for prediction markets in the United States.
Integration and competitive positioning
In integrating prediction markets, Coinbase is adopting Robinhood’s model: the platform sources order flow from Kalshi, while users trade directly within the Coinbase app. The fee structure is USD 0.01 per contract for Coinbase, plus an additional USD 0.01 for Kalshi – a total of USD 0.02 per traded contract per side.
At launch, “thousands” of Kalshi contracts will be available, covering events across economics, politics, sports, and other categories. Prediction market positions will appear alongside existing crypto balances, with a minimum stake of USD 1 in USD or USDC.
Stock trading will initially launch with a curated list of major stocks and ETFs, but will be expanded to thousands of additional securities in the coming months. Coinbase will offer extended trading hours five days per week outside regular market hours – with zero commissions. Funding can be provided in either US dollars or USDC.
Market volume and economic significance
Prediction markets are developing into a significant business segment. Robinhood already generates USD 100 million in annualized revenue from event contracts, with more than 1 million customers trading 11 billion contracts. Based on October figures, the company projects a USD 300 million business.
An analysis by Eilers & Krejcik projects annual trading volume in prediction markets to reach USD 1 trillion by the end of the decade. In the third quarter of 2025, Kalshi recorded trading volume of USD 4.5 billion, while Polymarket reached USD 3.5 billion. In November 2025 alone, Kalshi processed USD 5.8 billion and Polymarket USD 3.7 billion – nearly USD 10 billion in combined monthly volume.
The regulatory landscape is evolving in favor of the industry. In addition to Kalshi, Gemini Titan received a CFTC license as a Designated Contract Market on December 10, 2025, following a five-year approval process that began in March 2020. The CFTC also granted relief from data and recordkeeping requirements for several providers. In November 2025, Polymarket received a revised CFTC approval and re-entered the US market as a regulated Designated Contract Market.
Strategic transformation into an Everything Exchange
The expansion into prediction markets and stock trading is part of a broader product offensive. Alongside these two core announcements, Coinbase unveiled additional services: “Coinbase Tokenize” offers an end-to-end solution for tokenizing off-chain assets, combining issuance, custody, compliance, and trading. The platform is also developing custom stablecoins, AI-powered investment advisors, and 24/7 perpetuals with up to 50x leverage for crypto and stocks, scheduled to launch in early 2026.
Armstrong’s vision is that all major asset classes will migrate to the blockchain over the long term – from prediction markets and equities to commodities and real-world assets (RWAs) such as real estate. This strategy places Coinbase in direct competition with established fintech platforms like Robinhood, which are also pursuing the unification of diverse trading offerings.
The immediate impact on traditional financial service providers is likely to remain limited, as Coinbase is initially launching with a reduced product range. Nevertheless, the announcement signals a structural shift: crypto exchanges are evolving into universal trading platforms, while traditional brokers integrate crypto assets. Competition for market share in this converging market is therefore intensifying significantly.
