Polymarket paid influencers to stage fake bets on cloned dummy websites. None of the bets shown, worth roughly USD 1.9 million in total, were real, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation of 1,105 videos.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction exchange where users bet on the outcome of real events, from elections to sporting events. The platform bundles collective assessments into tradeable probabilities and settles the stakes in cryptocurrencies. Following a 2022 CFTC settlement that carried a USD 1.4 million fine, the operator must also block all US users. Consequently, it has operated offshore ever since. In July 2025, the company acquired the CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCEX for USD 112 million. Specifically, the deal aimed to prepare a regulated return to the United States. Meanwhile, the offshore platform recorded a trading volume of USD 9 billion in April 2026, whereas the regulated US unit reached only USD 1.3 billion. Now a past marketing campaign is drawing scrutiny.
Polymarket bets faked: how the campaign was built
The WSJ analyzed 1,105 videos from ten influencers, published between December 2025 and mid-May 2026. In roughly 70 percent of these clips a bet was shown, yet none of them was real. For this purpose, Polymarket had fake dummy websites created. These included the domain "poIymarket.com" with an i instead of an l, which was visually almost indistinguishable from the genuine site. In total, the campaign reached more than 140 million views across TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram.
In 118 videos, the creators presented fabricated winnings totaling roughly USD 900,000. However, the stakes shown never reached the platform. But in reality, those same bets would have lost more than USD 166,000 combined. Virality paid the participants around USD 2,000 to 3,000 per month. At the same time, the marketing agency instructed them to make their posts look "personal and organic" and to keep the payments secret. Only after WSJ reporters made contact did some add the label "@polymarket partner" to their profiles.
A single case illustrates the approach. The student George Makihara showed a USD 100,000 win in a January clip on a bet that President Donald Trump would say the word "McDonald's" that month. However, the footage of Trump used as proof was two months old. More than 50 real accounts placed the same bet in January, and all of them lost, as the WSJ found. Through the so-called clipper network, Virality coordinated the distribution of the short clips for maximum organic reach. Additionally, the platform paid for a series of videos explaining methods for trading on insider information, according to the report. Streamer Adin Ross also closed a deal in the multimillion-dollar range and appeared in at least five of the promoted videos.
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Barred from the US market yet targeting US users
Virality paid creators only when at least 60 percent of their audience was based in the United States. Therefore, the campaign deliberately targeted the very user group that Polymarket has been required to exclude since the 2022 CFTC settlement. The fine of USD 1.4 million at the time forced the operator to block its main US market. Since then, US users can reach the offshore platform only through a VPN.
This gray area has been known for years. However, the 60 percent threshold turns the covert outreach into a systematic circumvention of the user ban. The official path back, by contrast, ran through the acquisition of QCEX in July 2025. For USD 112 million, Polymarket took over the holding company behind the CFTC-licensed exchange QCX LLC and the clearinghouse QC Clearing LLC. QCEX founder Sergei Dobrovolskii had previously needed four years for the DCM and DCO licenses. Therefore, the purchase shortened the multi-year registration process.
The volume figures nevertheless show where the growth actually comes from. While the offshore platform reached USD 9 billion in April 2026, the regulated US unit reached only USD 1.3 billion. Thus the expensive onshore strategy stands in direct contradiction to the covert acquisition of barred US users through fake content. Immediately before the acquisition, the DOJ and CFTC had also dropped their investigations into Polymarket.
Third revelation in weeks around Polymarket's advertising strategy
The WSJ report is not the first of its kind. As early as June 5, 2026, Politico reported that Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber had transferred more than USD 2.5 million in total to over 800 recipients through a personal PayPal account. He had registered the account to the email address of a salad restaurant he co-founded. At least USD 350,000 of that went directly to content creators, while the rest went to producers and other service providers.
Around 20 of these influencers subsequently published at least 490 posts about Polymarket on X without disclosing a single partnership. About a third of these posts framed odds shifts as "BREAKING" or "NEW." FTC rules, however, require clear labeling of paid collaborations. A former deputy general counsel of the FTC characterized the described practices as arrangements that should generally be disclosed.
Speaking to the WSJ, Polymarket finally announced a comprehensive review of its own advertising content. Furthermore, it stated that it was committed to an accurate, fair, and transparent market.
Kentucky sues and is not alone in doing so
The Attorney General of Kentucky filed lawsuits against Polymarket, Kalshi, and the sweepstakes company VGW. The accusation is that the platforms operate unlicensed sports betting under the guise of "event contracts." Kentucky's "Wagering Consumer Protection Act" takes effect on July 15, 2026. Moreover, it prohibits licensed sports betting providers from cooperating with prediction exchanges. The complaints also name Kalshi partners such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull as co-defendants.
The conflict nevertheless reaches beyond a single state. In April 2026, the CFTC for its part sued Wisconsin, New York, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and New Mexico to block their gambling laws against federally regulated markets. The core conflict remains unresolved, because the states classify sports event contracts as gambling, while the CFTC and the platforms classify them as swaps under federal law. Competitor Kalshi, by contrast, serves US users directly as a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market and without a VPN. This regulatory head start explains precisely why Polymarket relied on covert marketing to catch up in the US market.
