I’ve just come back from a two-week holiday, so looking at charts again feels a bit odd. I currently have no real feel for the market (and its pain points). To get back into the swing of things again, I will begin by taking a look at higher time frames.
Bitcoin BTC (daily)
So, the 29'000 USD line showed some strong support. This is something to bear in mind in the event that the market goes lower. In terms of resistance, the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud initially worked nicely around 44'000 USD, in combination with the baseline that acted as support. In the second wave, the price pushed through the lower band of the cloud, and even closed within the long-term range of 44'000 - 50'000 USD. At around 47'000 - 48'000 USD, we will face some tough resistance from the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud, in combination with a larger supply in the major exchange orderbooks.
A low volatile consolidation in the 44'000-50'000 USD range would be a pretty bullish continuation sign to me. But I also have no issue with some minor corrections down to the 35'000-38'000 USD level. One first positive sign was the “no-price move” to the infrastructure bill news. We (the traders at the desk) are unsure as to what will happen if/when we take out $50k.
Ethereum ETH (daily)
The recovery is stunning, and, at least for me, difficult to put into a meaningful outlook analysis. Nevertheless, I feel comfortable with being long ETH above 2'500 USD. In terms of the market structure, there is not much insight out of the orderbooks or the derivatives market.
Ethereum/Bitcoin ETHBTC (daily)
The bull flag pattern is still very much in play. The breakout already occurred. The question remains if we will see a retesting of the flag, or if that has that already happened, too… Retest aside, it looks promising for long positions. I will keep an eye on the 0.065 level, which is the current baseline.
With this in mind, I did take a look at some other altcoins. Most of them are way behind bitcoin’s recovery. Below you can see the ALT, MID, SHIT, and DEFI indices from FTX versus bitcoin. They are all still about 30-35% behind bitcoin:
ALT-Index/Bitcoin ALTBTC (daily)
MID-Index/Bitcoin ALTBTC (daily)
SHIT-Index/Bitcoin SHITBTC (daily)
DEFI-Index/Bitcoin DEFIBTC (daily)
If ETHBTC continues its uptrend, I expect to see some fireworks for various altcoins.
Place your bets early because if the train leaves the station, it will be a very fast one!
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