I'm back from my holidays (and feeling pretty damned refreshed). Let's now dive straight into our weekly technical analysis. All of you who follow me know that I like to zoom out from time to time; especially after a longer break, it's good to start off with the daily chart.
Bitcoin BTC (daily)
My first impression: the rising wedge has not done any harm. Yes, we saw a dip (just shy of below the 50'000 USD level), but we recovered fairly quickly, and the price started "dancing" just above the Ichimoku cloud (right around the baseline).
We have not been that long and that close to the cloud since October/November 2020. It's decision time now... Will the price dip into the cloud, or will we see it lift and move over it?
Bitcoin BTC (4h)
This chart looks pretty wild, with a great deal of zig-zag action. Nevertheless, the Ichimoku cloud is green, and the current price is just within the cloud (but below the baseline).
Additionally, we are in a potential upward sloping channel. If we manage to bounce off of the lows of that channel again, I see a good chance of the price hovering over the cloud on the daily chart (see above).
If not, we might see a deeper correction, which would be the "C" of a classical ABC correction.
Ethereum ETH (daily)
What a thing of beauty!
Some traders are claiming that over the past weeks ETH has been supporting or even helping to raise crypto prices in every sector. One thing is clear: the sell side liquidity crisis is in full force. The rally is pretty much spot driven with only a few spikes on the perpetual funding rate side (futures).
Technically, it looks like a FANG stock with almost no drawbacks and a 45 degree upward moving trend. But let's zoom in quickly to check if we can see any bumps ahead...
Ethereum ETH (4h)
The 4'000 USD level took a bit of time to break, and after prices pushed through, we saw a quick pop up to 4'200 USD, with a kind of exhaustion sell-off (I usually look at Kraken, and those wicks just happen from time to time, especially to the downside).
I would like to see the price stabilise above the 3'800 USD mark to then take a smooth ride towards the 5'000 USD level.
If that doesn't happen, we might be up for a bigger correction into the 3'200 USD area. My guess is that if we see BTC take a dive into the 44'000-50'000 USD range, we will see ETH follow and hit that correction level of 3'200 USD.
But let's try to verify this by looking at the ETHBTC chart.
Ethereum / Bitcoin ETHBTC (daily)
My first impression: Damn that looks steep! We should be in for a correction, but to check that, we need to zoom in more.
Ethereum / Bitcoin ETHBTC (4h)
Does this chart look familiar to you? Yep, it almost looks like ETH (blue line).
So, no real signs of a bigger correction. We might come a touch lower and consolidate in the 0.067 area. In case ETH does temporarily lose its shine (which, in my opinion, can only happen if BTC steamrolls ahead to the 75'000 level), it might even go down to the 0.06 area.
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