JPMorgan sees recent SEC, CFTC, OCC and FASB moves as only a partial offset for the Clarity Act's Senate failure. Until a market structure law passes, the US bank expects elevated political and legal risk premiums in crypto to persist.
The Clarity Act is the planned US market structure law for digital assets. It aims to clarify the division of oversight between the securities regulator SEC and the derivatives regulator CFTC. It also seeks to give trading a legal framework. The House of Representatives passed the bill in July 2025 by 294 to 134 votes. In May 2026, the Senate Banking Committee eventually followed by 15 to 9. A team of analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou assessed the situation after the Senate defeat. Their report came out this week. In September, the same team had written that agency rules could bring crypto firms more clarity and capital. However, in their view such rules would be less durable than legislation. Still, the analysts describe market sentiment as "relatively constructive."
Subscribe to our newsletter
The best articles of the week, directly delivered into your mailbox.
The Senate fell eleven votes short of the required 60
In September, the Senate failed to pass the cloture motion that would have opened consideration of H.R. 3633. The vote was 49 to 50. Passage required 60, so the motion fell eleven short. According to summaries from law firms and trade media, all 49 yes votes came from Republicans. Collins, Hawley, Moran and Tillis, on the other hand, broke ranks and voted no. These reports say Tillis voted no for procedural reasons, so that he could move for a new vote later. In addition, Democrat Coons did not take part. As a result, the Senate only voted on procedure and never debated the bill's text.
Two questions dominated the dispute. One concerned ethics rules for digital assets held by officials. The other was whether stablecoin issuers may offer yield or rewards. Sponsor Cynthia Lummis had warned before the vote that a failure would mean it was "over." Since then, the realistic paths have been a lame-duck session after the November elections or the next Congress. The JPMorgan analysts consider passage this year unlikely. However, the bill could return in 2027.
SEC and CFTC open the market through agency action
The SEC responded in September with the so-called Innovation Exemption. It consists of two conditional exemptions that run for five years until 2031 and allow trading in tokenized NMS stocks. The first concerns the definition of "exchange" for tokenized securities venues, the second the definition of "dealer" for liquidity providers. The scope covers shares tokenized by the issuer itself or, under certain conditions, by a third party. According to JPMorgan, the tokens must carry the same economic and voting rights as the original shares. Synthetic products, security-based swaps, rights and warrants, however, remain excluded. The agency also caps the scope. Tier 1 allows 75 symbols with no more than 0.25% of average daily volume per stock. Tier 2, in contrast, allows 250 symbols with 2.5%. Access remains limited to approved participants. Moreover, trading venues must be US persons and comply with OFAC sanctions.
Yet issuers can opt out of having their shares tokenized. More firms have recently used this opt-out, which according to JPMorgan weighs on sentiment for application tokens such as ether. ETF inflows and futures positioning initially rose after the SEC announcement. They have since weakened. Furthermore, the exemption remains temporary, and the SEC is considering formal rulemaking with public comment.
At the same time, the CFTC is exploring whether to allow leveraged crypto trading on regulated US platforms. The project is at an early stage, so the JPMorgan analysts see little chance of implementation before 2027. If it succeeds, the bank believes a shift of trading to the US could deepen liquidity and improve price discovery. Regulated venues, which institutions tend to prefer, would benefit.
The ICBA lawsuit challenges the OCC charters
The banking regulator OCC has granted national trust charters to a growing number of stablecoin issuers and digital asset firms. This federal license allows the firms to hold assets in custody, manage reserves and issue tokens under federal oversight. It rests on the chartering final rule, published by the agency in March 2026 and in effect since April 2026. Meanwhile, the OCC is pushing ahead with GENIUS Act implementation, as its recent final rule for stablecoin issuers shows.
In early October, the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) sued the OCC and Comptroller Jonathan Gould. It filed the case in the US District Court for the District of Columbia. The plaintiff stands out. With the ICBA, the association of US community banks is taking aim at the licenses of new competitors. The suit challenges the chartering rule, Interpretive Letter 1176 from 2021 and the preliminary approval for Protego from February 2026. The association seeks to have them vacated and to bar the OCC from using them for further charters. But the lawsuit does not suspend licenses already granted.
The JPMorgan analysts concede that the charters are "not immune to challenges," citing this very lawsuit. Nevertheless, once granted, charters are "hard to reverse in practice," they argue. Among the agency measures, the licenses are therefore likely to be among the more durable ones.
The FASB weighs stablecoins as cash equivalents
The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) sets accounting standards for US companies. In August 2026, it published Exposure Draft 2026-ED400 on ASC 230, the standard for the statement of cash flows. The draft does not change the definition of cash equivalents but adds examples under which certain stablecoins can qualify. The conditions include redemption on demand and a direct redemption right against the issuer at a known amount. Segregated reserves of at least 1:1 in short-term, highly liquid assets are also necessary.
Secondary market liquidity alone is not enough. All companies would also have to newly disclose the components of their cash equivalents. The FASB accepts comments until 19.11.2026. JPMorgan sees adoption of the rule as support for use beyond trading. This applies, for example, to payments and to liquidity management by companies and institutions. For now, it is only a draft.
Why JPMorgan says only a law like the Clarity Act would lower the risk premium
The analysts base their skepticism on the lack of durability. The industry must rely on a "patchwork" of agency measures, they write. If a Democrat wins the White House, a new administration could reverse them in just two years. An exemption like the SEC's rests on an agency decision that future agency leadership can change. By contrast, only Congress can change a law.
"Regulatory-driven actions can boost institutional participation in the crypto ecosystem in the short term, but only legislation would make the framework more durable over the long term." - Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and team, analysts, JPMorgan
On top of that, the SEC exemption expires in 2031 anyway, while the CFTC plans remain at an early stage. Until Congress passes a comprehensive market structure law, JPMorgan therefore expects elevated political and legal risk premiums to persist.
