Prediction market platform Polymarket is currently in discussions with investors for a new $400 million funding round. The company is targeting a Polymarket valuation of approximately $15 billion.
The Information reported the news, citing two people familiar with the talks. As recently as October 2025, the Polymarket valuation stood at $9 billion. Six months later, it has risen by 67 percent. Behind the jump stands one name above all: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. Since then, ICE has invested roughly $1.6 billion in Polymarket in total. According to reports, the new round could reach as much as $1 billion if additional investors join alongside ICE.
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ICE bets on prediction data as institutional infrastructure
ICE initially entered with a $1 billion investment in October 2025. A second payment of $600 million followed on March 27, 2026. In addition, the company plans to purchase up to $40 million in Polymarket shares from existing holders. Altogether, the investment amounts to at least $1.64 billion. ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher deliberately frames this not as a venture bet, but as a data strategy.
"We are not a venture fund. We are rewarded when we integrate the underlying technologies into our workflows and grow our revenue." - Jeffrey Sprecher, CEO Intercontinental Exchange
In February 2026, ICE therefore launched the tool "Polymarket Signals and Sentiment." A real-time feed channels data from Polymarket markets directly into terminals, alongside bond yields and S&P 500 futures. As a result, prediction market data becomes its own asset class for traders. For ICE, this is not a bet on the prediction market sector. Instead, it is an extension of its own data business.
Polymarket valuation in context: Kalshi sits at $22 billion
Polymarket is not the only platform commanding a high valuation. Competitor Kalshi also closed a $1 billion round in March 2026, led by Coatue Management. The Kalshi valuation reached $22 billion. As a result, both platforms have doubled their valuations within just a few months.
However, the difference in business models stands out. Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated US exchange and generated $263.5 million in fee revenue in 2025. Polymarket, by contrast, only introduced trading fees in February 2026. The revenue model is just a few months old. Since the launch, daily revenue has reportedly been around $1 million.
Nevertheless, the take rate puts things in perspective. At a daily volume of $478 million in March 2026 and revenue of $1 million, it stands at only about 0.2 percent. Therefore, the $15 billion valuation assumes that Polymarket either scales volume significantly or raises fees. In terms of volume, both platforms are nearly matched. Kalshi's weekly volume reached roughly $2.59 billion in February 2026. Polymarket followed at $1.9 billion in March. However, a clear gap remains on revenue.
Prediction markets grow 16-fold in one year
The entire sector is experiencing a strong boom. According to TRM Labs, monthly volumes across all prediction markets rose from $1.2 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion in January 2026. In other words, that represents 16-fold growth. Together, Polymarket and Kalshi control roughly 79 percent of this market.
Moreover, Polymarket is expanding beyond politics. For example, Major League Baseball (MLB) named the platform its "Official Prediction Market Exchange Partner" in March 2026. The partnership includes access to league data via Sportradar and a regulatory framework with the CFTC. In addition, Polymarket acquired the DeFi startup Brahma to simplify its own technology stack. At the same time, a system against market fraud is being developed in collaboration with Palantir and TWG AI.
Despite these advances, competition is forming quickly. Coinbase and Robinhood have launched their own prediction market products. Similarly, Nasdaq and Cboe are exploring "Binary Bets" offerings. Competition is therefore intensifying, precisely because the sector appears to be generating profit.
Regulatory risks and open questions
Polymarket operates as a crypto platform on the Polygon network with USDC payments. Shayne Coplan founded the company in 2020 in New York. Following a CFTC settlement in 2022, Polymarket was forced to temporarily block US users. The platform only re-entered the US market in 2025. To mitigate risk, the company has since acquired a licensed exchange and a clearinghouse. Details, however, remain undisclosed.
Regulatory risk affects the broader sector as well. Arizona has filed gambling charges against Kalshi, and the competitor faces more than 20 lawsuits in total. Because Polymarket is less strictly regulated, similar proceedings could follow.
For the $15 billion valuation, key figures are still missing. Polymarket does not disclose audited financials. Neither a revenue multiple nor a comparable benchmark can therefore be calculated. ICE, however, views the investment as part of its own data infrastructure, not as venture capital. The $400 million round is not yet complete as of April 2026. Investors beyond ICE also remain unknown.
