Sberbank expects up to USD 46.4 billion in regulated crypto trading during the first year of Russia's new crypto law. Around one fifth of the existing crypto activity in the country should move to licensed exchanges.
Sberbank is Russia's largest bank and remains majority state-controlled. The forecast comes from SberCIB Investment Research, the analysis arm of the institution. Its range runs from 3.5 to 4 trillion RUB. President Vladimir Putin signed the framework law Federal Law 282-FZ in early August 2026. Before that, the State Duma and the Federation Council had approved it in July. It is Russia's first comprehensive rulebook for crypto exchanges, custodians, brokers, clearing houses and mining operators. The law finally takes effect on 1 September 2026. Individual provisions, however, apply only a year later. Before the reform, the Russian finance ministry put the country's daily crypto transaction volume at around USD 650 million. Anatoly Popov, deputy chairman of the board at Sberbank, additionally looked to 2029. He named a mark of 7.5 trillion RUB (USD 87.1 billion) for that year.
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Who may legally trade crypto assets in Russia in future
The law ties market access to formal requirements. First, crypto exchanges must show minimum equity capital of 15 million RUB (around USD 185,200). Moreover, the legislator demands entry in a special register and membership in a self-regulatory organization for the financial market. Only this entry makes a platform able to trade. In absolute terms, the capital hurdle is comparatively low. Therefore the registration duty is decisive, because it draws a dividing line between licensed platforms and the previously unregulated trade.
A hard ceiling applies to retail investors. They may invest at most 300,000 RUB (around USD 3,700) in cryptocurrencies per year and per intermediary. The limit applies per provider, so several accounts widen the frame in practice. Qualified investors, by contrast, face no restriction. Additionally, both categories must pass a suitability test. Non-qualified investors can initially trade only the most liquid assets, namely Bitcoin, Ether and the stablecoin USDT. The distance between the rulebook and the size of the market stands out. Extrapolated, the daily volume of USD 650 million amounts to roughly 18 trillion RUB a year. The SberCIB analysts consequently expect a migration of about one fifth of today's activity. The larger part of trading would thus stay outside the licensed segment.
Some vagueness remains around the deadlines. Existing crypto exchanges receive a transition period until 1 March 2027 and may keep operating until then. Professional market participants such as brokers need their license by 1 July 2027. However, the available information leaves open which date ultimately applies to which category. The rules on issuance and circulation of crypto assets take hold only from 1 September 2027. For now, the framework therefore covers mainly secondary trading. Licensed and unregulated offerings consequently continue to exist side by side.
Sberbank's own crypto products take shape
The bank does not stop at forecasts. By 1 December 2026 it wants to launch a crypto wallet in the Sber and SberInvestments apps. At the same time, a digital custody account for crypto assets is emerging. Kirill Tsarev, first deputy chairman of the board, confirmed the integration into Sberbank Online and SberInvestments. Android users will probably receive access before iOS users. The launch thus falls three months after the law takes effect. Custody of crypto assets moves into the app of the country's largest bank. Customers will later hold their positions without a detour via foreign platforms.
The ambition reaches further with loans against crypto collateral. As soon as the Russian central bank agrees, the institution wants to grant loans against Bitcoin, Ether and USDT. The group has already completed a pilot loan of this kind. Specifically, the mining company Intelion Data posted self-mined cryptocurrency as collateral. Mining proceeds accrue in cryptocurrency anyway. A miner therefore gains liquidity without selling holdings. Furthermore, the bank has sold structured bonds and digital financial assets to qualified investors since 2025. Both product types reference Bitcoin and Ether. Overall, a product chain emerges from custody through trading to lending.
"We prepared for this in advance and already have practical experience in handling cryptocurrencies. As soon as the law fully takes effect, we will adapt Sberbank's existing products to the new requirements and expand our offering consistently. [...]" - Anatoly Popov, Deputy Chairman of the Board, Sberbank
Without approval from the central bank, however, the lending business remains a declaration of intent.
VTB and T-Bank follow Sberbank into crypto trading
Sberbank is not acting alone. Crypto services from VTB and T-Bank are likewise in preparation. Both target the same customers as the market leader. Meanwhile, the Moscow Exchange runs the central trading venue for Russian securities and already trades futures on a Bitcoin index. Competition for the new accounts consequently begins before regulated trading starts.
Sberbank holds the lead for now. Since 2025 the institution has been gathering operational experience with crypto investment products for qualified investors. For rivals, the December date of the wallet launch thus becomes the benchmark. All providers nevertheless work under the same framework of register duty and investor limits. The licensing deadlines will finally decide how quickly the competitors catch up.
Sberbank's view also reaches beyond the first forecast period. Popov's mark of 7.5 trillion RUB for 2029 comes close to double the estimate for the first year. Both figures refer to trading on Russian exchanges.
Crypto payments in foreign trade despite US sanctions
The legislator separates domestic and foreign trade sharply. Inside Russia, the law still bans payments with cryptocurrencies for goods and services. The ruble thus stays the only permitted means of payment at home. By contrast, the law allows cross-border settlement of foreign trade contracts between residents and non-residents. The channel is open to exporters and importers, not to domestic commerce. Originally, Moscow had already permitted the use of cryptocurrencies in international trade in 2024, in order to circumvent Western sanctions. Under the new law, that practice gains a firm legal framework for the first time.
The new legal situation changes nothing about the US sanctions regime. Transactions with sanctioned Russian parties still fall under Washington's rules. An EU sanctions package from April 2026 additionally bars people in the EU from dealing with Russian crypto service providers. For foreign counterparties, access to the Russian market therefore remains a legal risk. A legal framework emerges at home, but no exemption from foreign rules. Ultimately, the bank's real bet is on domestic demand.
