Technical Analysis
Good Morning!
What a week! Volatility picked up and we saw some really nice moves both up and down across the entire coin spectrum.
BTC$ (daily)
After breaking out of the large multi-year triangle and pushing through the resistance at $10.5k, Bitcoin (BTC) pushed further, reaching a local top above 12k on early Sunday night. Then, as already warned about last week, on early Sunday morning the very overstretched derivatives space took its toll and BTC$ dropped from above $12k down to $10.6k within just 15 minutes. Overall liquidations of long futures positions reached more than $1bln, providing the much needed relaxation. The price recovered swiftly and we are now consolidating between $10.8k-$11.5k. From a charting perspective, this was a successful retest of the former breakout level. I expect the bullish trend to continue after a few more days of consolidation, and will place stops for my long position below $10.5k. Levels to watch on the topside are the last local tops of $12.1k, 13.2k, and 14k. Let the bulls run!
ETH$ (daily)
Last week’s analysis was spot on. With a similar pattern as BTC, but with even greater volatility, Ethereum (ETH) pushed to a new local high at around $420 before crashing down to levels around $300, just shy above the important support and former breakout level of $290. As with bitcoin (but even stronger), this is a healthy and strong bull market, as long as we stay above $290.
ETHBTC (daily)
The cross is clearly showing the strength of ETH. After leaving the 0.0250 zone behind, it took only 12 days to go up 40% and reach the next resistance at 0.035. I expect to see some consolidation here, but the pressure we are seeing (especially on the term future basis) could push it straight through. In that case, the zone around 0.040 would be the next target.
ALTPERP$ / MIDPERP$ / SHITPERP$ (daily)
All three altcoin indices are showing a picture of strong and continuous bull trends. What we can also see is a rotation from the low caps into larger altcoins. As the Shitperp Index was the clear outperformer from May to mid-July, this has switched now to the Altperp Index, which over the course of the last two weeks has been the clear leader.
DEFIPERP$ (4h)
DeFi is still hot. So hot that the correction that we expected last week never happened. It pushed through the Ichimoku cloud straight away and is currently staying at the highs, confirming its strength.
