An overview of the trading activities on the cryptomarkets. Studies on traded volumes, supply and demand situations, as well as periodic technical analysis of the most important crypto-currencies and indices, including the perspective of professional Traders.
Technical Analysis
Good Morning!
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $46'620 (-1.79% in 7 days), Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $3'518 (+3.43% in 7 days), and the spread ETH/BTC is trading at 0.07547 (+5.24% in 7 days).
After a break of BTC at $48k, bitcoin retraced back to $45k, and together with ETH and other altcoins, traders seemed content to sit back and watch events unfold.
Bitcoin analysis
As BTC is still trading in a narrow spread, the $50k resistance seems to be a truly psychological level. While major oscillators (RSI, CCI, etc.) are neutral, the moving averages as well as Ichimoku are in favour of a buy. Unfortunately, my support and resistance bands are holding well since January when I first drew them. Then again, a break of $50k could rapidly bring us back to $60k:
- Support: 42k (first) and 35k (second)
- Resistance: 47k - 50k
Dervatives perspectives
The futures and the options term-structures have steeped and are now showing a greater contango. BTC Futures annualised 3mth Basis are currently trading at 4.65% on CME, while they were trading at 2.30% at the beginning of the month. Anyway, there is still a long way to go before we see trading at mid-October levels when the basis was at 14%.
BTC short-term volatility dipped by 10pts, while long-term volatility has not moved, suggesting that the spot price could consolidate within $40k - $50k for a few more weeks. In terms of the medium/long-term perspective: the market is quite bullish as the long-term BTC options skew is finally trading at par.
The open interest profile shows once again protection at $40k (support) and upside exposure to $50k and $60k (resistance). During the week, there has also been a large accumulation of upside exposure ($70k-$90k) for long-term maturities, incentivised as well by the low volatility price.
News could bring momentum
As many conferences are taking place (Bitcoin Miami, Crypto Compare in London, Crypto Assets Conference in Frankfurt, etc.) we might expect to see some volatility and directional moves as some traders are away from their desk. And more news is likely to be announced (last year at Bitcoin Miami, El Salvador introduced bitcoin as legal tender).
As well as the UK’s Finance Minister announced that the UK will move to recognise stablecoins as a valid form of payment, as the government plans to make UK a global cryptoasset technology hub. And also Elon Musk is bringing some activity into the market again. He has bought a 9.2% stake in Twitter making him the largest shareholder; the stock gained 27% in the biggest rally since its IPO in 2013. With that in mind DOGE started trading higher as the community expects Musk to push for the introduction of the coin in the social network.
Happy Trading!
All intellectual property, proprietary and other rights and interests in this publication and the subject matter hereof are owned by Crypto Broker AG including, without limitation, all registered design, copyright, trademark and service mark rights.
Disclaimer
This publication provided by Crypto Broker AG, a corporate entity registered under Swiss law, is published for information purposes only. This publication shall not constitute any investment advice respectively does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. This publication is not intended for solicitation purposes but only for use as general information. All descriptions, examples and calculations contained in this publication are for illustrative purposes only. While reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this publication to provide details that are accurate and not misleading at the time of publication, Crypto Broker AG (a) does not make any representations or warranties regarding the information contained herein, whether express or implied, including without limitation any implied warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or any warranty with respect to the accuracy, correctness, quality, completeness or timeliness of such information, and (b) shall not be responsible or liable for any third party’s use of any information contained herein under any circumstances, including, without limitation, in connection with actual trading or otherwise or for any errors or omissions contained in this publication.
Risk disclosure
Investments in virtual currencies are high-risk investments with the risk of total loss of the investment and you should not invest in virtual currencies unless you understand and can bear the risks involved with such investments. No information provided in this publication shall constitute investment advice. Crypto Broker AG excludes its liability for any losses arising from the use of, or reliance on, information provided in this publication.
