If Democrats win a chamber of Congress in November's midterms, they could hardly stop deregulation for banks and crypto firms. However, they would gain subpoena power and larger investigative staffs, and their pressure would run through hearings rather than legislation.
Every two years, the US midterm elections put all House seats and part of the Senate up for a vote. Whoever wins a chamber takes the committee chairs there and thus controls hearings, subpoenas and oversight of the administration. New laws would still run into a veto from Republican President Donald Trump. Since taking office, the Trump administration has loosened rules and oversight for banks, crypto firms and prediction markets. Its aim is to keep capital and jobs in the US. This easing runs through the agencies, so legislation can hardly reverse it. Ahead of the November 3, 2026 vote, polls see Democrats as House favorites and slightly ahead in the Senate.
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A win would give Democrats subpoena power
In Congress, the power to issue subpoenas rests with committee chairs from the majority party. As a result, if Democrats win only one chamber, their oversight stays limited to that chamber. There, they could expand their investigative staffs and call agency heads and CEOs to testify. Legislation, on the other hand, could not stop the agenda. The deregulation runs through administrative law, meaning decisions by the agencies themselves. Congress can put pressure on this path through hearings, but it cannot block it by law.
Still, the pressure would be real. Industry representatives expect that heads of bipartisan bodies in particular cannot simply ignore requests from Congress. On highly contested issues, they could therefore act more cautiously. In addition, requests and hearing preparation take time that is then missing for policy work. Friction already exists. Trump's regulators are granting banks major capital relief and have already clashed with Democrats in hearings.
Markets and models put the odds of a shift in power only as a range. As of today, Polymarket gave Democrats 91% for the House and 63% for the Senate. The platform priced a win in both chambers at 62%. Kalshi had the party at 61% in the Senate. The election models showed a comparatively wide spread. Silver Bulletin put Democrats at about 93% in the House and about 75% in the Senate. Poliwave came to 84% and 61%, respectively. Notably, prediction markets are thus both a barometer of the election and a target of the announced oversight.
Waters, Warren and Casten could shape the committees
In the House, Maxine Waters is the ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee. As its former chair, she called the CEOs of the largest US banks to testify. Observers expect such appearances again if she returns to the chair. In the Senate, Elizabeth Warren is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee. She is the favorite to take over its chair. Lately, though, her criticism has focused more on large AI companies. She accuses them of special access to the government and influence over policy. Both lawmakers also repeatedly raise high housing costs and criticize the rollback of consumer protection.
For the crypto industry, another personnel question is more sensitive. Crypto executives fear that Representative Sean Casten could challenge Waters for the Financial Services chair. In September, Punchbowl News reported that Casten had considered such a move. His spokesperson did not comment. His record explains the concern. In 2024, he introduced a bill targeting crypto tools that, in his view, facilitate money laundering. A year later, he voted against the CLARITY Act, the planned market structure law for crypto, citing risks to Americans.
Furthermore, lawyers and analysts name other likely committee targets. These include looser bank supervision with reduced enforcement. Another is Wall Street's role in financing the AI boom and new data centers. Likewise, the finance industry's influence on housing and the cost of living is likely to come up. All chair posts remain expectations for now, with no final decisions yet.
Prediction markets and Trump ties in focus
According to earlier media reports, Democrats are preparing investigations into President Trump and his family. At issue are their ties to the crypto and prediction market industries. They view these business dealings as a conflict of interest. Such probes would also reach companies that do business with the president's family.
At the same time, Democrats are calling for more oversight of prediction markets. On these platforms, users bet on the outcome of real-world events through contracts. In their view, these markets open new avenues for abuse. They also see a national security risk because government insiders could leak confidential information. The operators, by contrast, stress that they actively fight abuse. In late September, Ro Khanna, a Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, likewise weighed in. He saw a need to scrutinize crypto transactions on national security grounds.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the Democrats' plans. Earlier, in September, a spokesperson accused the opposition of trying to block the president's agenda and attack him without cause.
After the midterms, crypto firms mainly face headlines
For companies, congressional oversight usually means legal and advisory costs. According to lawyers and analysts, however, negative headlines and reputational damage weigh more heavily. Early signs are already visible. Lawyers report that clients have already received letters from investigators about their contacts with the administration. Consequently, law firms are preparing their clients for such inquiries to turn into formal investigations.
Past hearings show how far this pressure can reach. After hearings before Congress, major banks changed their overdraft fees and fraud protections. At Wells Fargo, CEO John Stumpf resigned abruptly in 2016 after hearings on the fake accounts scandal. In the end, this required no change in law. In early October, online broker Webull showed how quickly congressional findings can hit share prices. First, the House's bipartisan Select Committee on China published a report on the company's China ties. Following the report, the stock fell to a near four-month low. This was a congressional finding, not an action by the SEC or FINRA. Webull disputes the report and points to inaccuracies in it.
Crypto legislation also depends on the balance of power in Congress. On September 15, 2026, the Senate rejected a procedural motion on the CLARITY Act by 49 to 50 votes. Passage would have required 60. As a result, a new attempt must wait for the new Congress in January 2027, possibly under Democratic leadership.
