Democrats will control both chambers of Congress after the US midterm elections in November 2026. As a result, the crypto industry's chances of getting its long-planned market structure bill are fading.
Midterm elections fall halfway through a term, when the US elects the entire House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate. The new majorities decide who writes laws and who oversees individual industries. The crypto industry mainly exerts influence over this through super PACs, which are campaign committees. These include Fairshake, backed primarily by Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz. Previously, the industry had found a friendly climate in Washington for two years. During that time, the GENIUS Act for stablecoins became law. However, the Clarity Act, a comprehensive market structure bill, failed in the Senate in September 2026. Crypto PACs spent a total of USD 170 million during the campaign. The lobby group Stand With Crypto counts 19 crypto-friendly senators and 226 representatives among those elected. By the group's own tally, they face 8 crypto-critical senators and 106 representatives.
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Sherrod Brown returns despite USD 60 million in opposition
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeated Republican Jon Husted. The win remains unofficial until certification. The race was a special election for the remainder of the term of JD Vance, who had moved into the office of vice president. Stand With Crypto had backed Husted and rated him as a candidate who "strongly supports" crypto. Husted had also endorsed the GENIUS Act. Brown could return to the Senate as early as mid-December 2026.
For the industry, the result is a costly defeat. Fairshake committed USD 30 million against Brown in September, shortly after the Clarity Act failed in the Senate. In total, crypto-friendly PACs spent more than USD 60 million against him in Ohio. Back in 2024, Fairshake had spent USD 12 million on Republican Bernie Moreno, who beat Brown at the time. The industry thus invested against the same politician twice, but without success in 2026.
Brown previously chaired the Senate Banking Committee, which has jurisdiction over digital assets in the Senate. He has a reputation as a crypto critic. With his return, the Democrat could therefore take a leading role in overseeing and regulating the industry. The very senator the industry twice tried to keep out of the Senate would then help shape its future rules. Ultimately, the strategy of targeting crypto-critical candidates with PAC money reaches its limit in Ohio.
Majority for the Clarity Act crypto bill fades in Congress
The Clarity Act aimed to comprehensively regulate market structure for digital assets in the US. The House of Representatives passed the bill back in 2025, but it made no progress in the Senate. In mid-September 2026, it finally failed there on a procedural vote. Senate Democrats cited President Donald Trump as their reason for opposing it. They said they could not back a bill that allows him personal gains from the crypto industry.
TD Cowen's Washington Research Group now considers progress on the bill unlikely in the next two years. In a post-election note, Managing Director Jaret Seiberg attributes this view to Brown's win in Ohio. Even before the election, the firm had put the chances for 2026 at only 25 to 33%, depending on the note. Galaxy Research still estimated 50% in June and later cut its estimate to 10%. The election result deepens this skepticism.
According to TD Cowen, pressure on the industry is consequently shifting from legislation to investigations. Seiberg expects Democrats to examine Trump's entanglements with the crypto industry, including his ties to World Liberty Financial. This ends a phase in which Washington tended to advance the industry's concerns rather than slow them. For now, the GENIUS Act, which regulates the stablecoin market, remains the tangible result.
The industry disputes the return on its USD 170 million
Fairshake and its two sister PACs spent a combined USD 154.5 million across the primaries and the general election. By contrast, the USD 170 million covers all crypto PACs that took part in the midterms. The organization Americans for Financial Reform puts Fairshake's receipts at USD 106.2 million, although for a different period. As in Ohio, the network was active in other contested races across the country. In Nebraska, for example, it deployed more than USD 13 million against independent candidate Dan Osborn, who challenged Republican Pete Ricketts.
At the same time, a new rift over this strategy is emerging within the industry. An industry source who wished to remain anonymous questions the spending against Brown in particular. The source asks what the industry ultimately gained from it. Instead of PAC millions, the source favors traditional lobbying on the ground, meaning direct work with lawmakers. In the source's account, a fraction of the money could have enlisted all of Washington for the Clarity Act. The objection gains weight because Brown now returns to the Senate as an election winner against the industry. Nevertheless, Fairshake is holding to its course.
"Fairshake played a meaningful role in winning competitive races across the country in 2026 and we will do it again in 2028." - Geoff Vetter, Fairshake spokesperson
Vetter added that 2028 is "a new map." Senate seats and the presidency will then be up for election again alongside the House. Until then, however, the industry must work with a majority, some of whose candidates it campaigned against.
Taxes, hacks and investigations set the new agenda
The election came in the days after the largest crypto hack of all time. In late October 2026, attackers stole about USD 6.3 billion from the crypto exchange Binance. A few days later, the exchange reopened withdrawals for 15 networks. The FBI attributes the attack to the North Korean group TraderTraitor. In Congress, the case thus gives the incoming majority additional material for the debate on oversight and security.
The crypto bank Anchorage Digital counts taxes as well as security and hacks among the topics now moving onto the agenda. In addition, TD Cowen expects investigations into Trump's crypto businesses. Therefore, little room remains for legislation the industry itself is seeking.
Publicly, the industry still projects confidence. Kara Calvert, Vice President U.S. Policy at Coinbase, expects headwinds for any bipartisan legislation next year. Yet nobody is burying their head in the sand, she wrote on X, and crypto is "100% bipartisan." Coinbase, Anchorage and Fairshake are also counting on younger lawmakers from both parties. They consider these lawmakers more open to technology.
