Today's US presidential election pits Donald Trump against Kamala Harris, with the outcome potentially impacting the crypto market and blockchain adoption. Trump has positioned himself as pro-crypto, while the Democrats have taken a more conservative stance.
Under a Trump presidency, regulatory easing is expected. This is likely to cause a rally in bitcoin prices, potentially pushing it beyond its previous all-time high. A Harris win is likely to cause a short-term market disappointment, as the current Democratic regime has been hostile to blockchain-related innovation, as evidenced by the SEC's crackdown on many US registered blockchain entities, such as Ripple, Opensea, MetaMask or Uniswap.
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USA struggling to reach regulatory clarity
Harris' approach to the crypto industry appears to be more cautious and focused on regulation, but she has said little about how she plans to approach the blockchain industry. As part of the current administration, she has only mentioned the industry sparingly and usually in the context of strict oversight. While some argue that this approach could lead to a clear regulatory framework, such as MiCA for the EU region, others call it a coordinated effort against the industry. Harris has considered promoting SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to Treasury Secretary, which would allow "Operation Choke Point 2.0" to continue virtually unchecked.
"She will support policies that ensure emerging technologies and this type of industry can continue to grow. [...] Obviously, she believes that one of the key requirements is a stable set of rules, similar to the rules of the road." - Brian Nelson, Senior Advisor to the Harris Campaign
Trump, on the other hand, has vowed to fire Gensler on the first day of his presidency, along with other big promises for the blockchain industry. These include the creation of a strategic national reserve of 213,000 BTC, worth nearly $15 billion, which will serve as a "permanent national asset". Trump also stated that he wanted to make the US a bitcoin superpower, bringing the global focus of the blockchain industry to the United States. According to the latest betting numbers from Polymarket, Trump may soon need to put his money where his mouth is.
Innovation and global competition
While also catering to a single-issue crypto voter, it seems Trump understands the importance of the growing blockchain industry as he sets the stage to capture a lion's share of the revenue generated by the blockchain industry, which is projected to reach $1,431.5 billion by 2030.
However, regardless of the outcome of the election, the continued growth and mainstream acceptance of blockchain and crypto assets can be expected. For example, despite the current hostile regulatory environment, the spot bitcoin ETFs launched in the US this year have been a massive success, currently sitting at $23 billion of net inflows and showing growing institutional interest. And if regulations become too stringent, we can expect to see a migration to more crypto-friendly jurisdictions such as Switzerland's Crypto Valley, Dubai or Singapore.
